Oil markets do not react to shortages. They react to probabilities.
After the strikes against Iran and the incidents involving ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the barrel immediately priced in a geopolitical premium. Not because global supply collapsed, but because about 20 million barrels per day — nearly 20% of world oil trade — pass through this strategic corridor.
Of these volumes, about 17 million barrels per day concern crude, and the remainder condensates and refined products. A partial disruption of only 3 to 5 million barrels per day would be enough to create a major shock, given the extremely inelastic short-term supply.
The immediately mobilizable spare capacity of OPEC+ is estimated between 3 and 4 million barrels per day, mainly concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. However, producing more does not guarantee the ability to deliver if the maritime corridor is disrupted.
OECD commercial stocks stand at about 2.8 billion barrels, equal to roughly 60 days of net imports. This cushion may seem comfortable on the surface, but it is not evenly distributed and its coordinated use requires major policy decisions.
Historically, an effective loss of 1 million barrels per day can generate a rise of $5 to $10 per barrel depending on market conditions. In a context of logistical tension and speculative expectations, a shock of 3 to 4 million barrels per day could push prices beyond $100, especially if the disruption lasts a few weeks.
Three scenarios emerge.
First scenario: rapid de-escalation. The geopolitical premium partially contracts, and the barrel returns toward its fundamental value, probably in a $80–$90 range.
Second scenario: intermittent disruptions. Maritime insurance costs doubled or tripled, loading delays, naval escorts. The barrel could stabilize sustainably around $90–$100.
Third scenario: de facto closure or prolonged paralysis. A prolonged reduction of 4 to 5 million barrels per day would push prices toward $110 or higher, with significant global inflationary effects.
Each sustained $10 rise in the price of a barrel increases global inflation by about 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points and weighs on the growth of net importing economies. Central banks then face a dilemma: fight energy inflation or preserve growth that is already fragile.
Despite the acceleration of renewable energies, hydrocarbons still account for nearly 80% of global energy consumption. This reality grants strategic chokepoints a disproportionately systemic power.
Hormuz is not merely a maritime passage. It is a macroeconomic risk multiplier.
The price of oil today does not reflect a war. It reflects the probability that a regional incident could become a global shock.
Imed Derouiche
Energy, Hydrogen and Digital Transition Expert
