The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China rose at its fastest pace in more than three years in February 2026, while the decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) continued to ease.
This rebound was largely fueled by a sharp rise in consumer spending during the Lunar New Year holidays and by tensions in the global energy market.
According to data released on March 9 by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China, the country’s CPI rose by 1.3% in February 2026 year on year. This figure significantly exceeded economists’ expectations (0.9%) and was well above the 0.2% increase recorded in January 2026. It marks the strongest CPI rise in China since January 2023.
In the same context, the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.9% year on year. Although this marks the 41st consecutive month of decline, the drop was smaller than the 1.1% forecast and represents the smallest decrease since July 2024.
China’s statistical services attribute the surge in consumer prices to several timing factors. The direct cause was that the Lunar New Year holidays, which took place entirely in February 2026, strongly boosted consumer spending and tourism nationwide.
Moreover, the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, notably tensions between the United States and Iran, sent global crude oil prices soaring, threatening the supply of cheaply imported oil. In China, fuel prices rose by 3.1% in February 2026 compared with January.
As a result, the spillover effects of global geopolitical conflicts on energy prices are beginning to be felt as the rise in global crude oil prices and non-ferrous metal prices has driven monthly cost increases in many sectors, including oil and gas extraction.
The latest figures send positive signals to the world’s second-largest economy in its efforts to exit its worst period of deflation in decades. Last week, China reaffirmed its strongest commitment to date to end deflation, determined to bring overall price levels back into positive territory this year.
