For several decades, the Tunisian economy has been built on a relatively stable foundation, anchored around textiles, mass tourism, agriculture, and a few export-oriented industries.
This model has allowed the country to integrate effectively into European value chains, notably thanks to its geographic proximity and a competitive workforce. But today, its limits are emerging in increasingly evident ways.
The rise of technological requirements, cost pressures, intensified international competition, and rapid shifts in the global economy are forcing a deep reconfiguration. Three global dynamics are now reshaping the contours of competitiveness: the energy transition, the accelerated digitalization of the economy, and the industrial reconfiguration around nearshoring.
In this new landscape, Tunisia has real assets. It remains to be seen that they are mobilized in sectors capable of delivering a sustained upgrade in value. A few industries stand out today as strategic levers toward 2030.
Green Hydrogen: A Major Energy Opportunity
The European energy transition opens a historic window for Tunisia. Thanks to exceptional sunshine in the south and significant wind potential along coastal areas, the country can position itself as a competitive producer of green hydrogen, considered a key vector of decarbonization of Europe’s heavy industry.
The projections are ambitious. The national strategy envisages production capacity reaching up to 8.3 million tonnes per year by 2050, of which about 6 million are destined for export. Cumulative investments could reach €40 billion in the long term, with initial industrial projects expected before 2030.
In a context where Europe seeks to secure its energy supplies from nearby partners, Tunisia could make a major strategic shift, moving from energy importer to key exporter.
Artificial Intelligence: An Underexploited Capital
Tunisia has a comparative advantage often underestimated: a pool of highly qualified engineers. Each year, nearly 8,000 graduates join the labor market, with strong specialization in computer science and applied mathematics.
