TN Special Report: Can Electric Cars Survive Tunisia’s Energy Model?

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Power outages caused by the heat wave have revived a concern: if the Tunisian grid already struggles to feed air conditioners, could it support tens of thousands of electric cars? The figures show that the real danger is not there. The problem lies in tariffs, charging management, and an energy model still almost entirely dependent on gas.

Tunisia is coming out of a week of electricity under high tension. At the peak of the heat wave, national consumption reached about 5,000 megawatts between 2:00 PM and 4:00 PM, representing an increase of nearly 30% compared to the usual level.

To avoid a general grid collapse, the Tunisian Company for Electricity and Gas, STEG, resorted to temporary load shedding. Available capacities and imports from Algeria were no longer sufficient to absorb the peak mainly caused by air conditioning.

In conversations, the conclusion seemed almost natural: if the grid cannot currently supply all air conditioners, how could it support tens of thousands of electric cars tomorrow?

The question is legitimate. The answer is less intuitive: at the levels envisaged for 2030, the electric car does not, on a national scale, constitute the main threat to the Tunisian grid.

The real problem lies elsewhere: in the lack of managed charging, residential pricing, the delay of smart meters, the price of vehicles, and, above all, a power system still almost entirely fed by gas.

A problem far smaller than it seems

The Tunisian target announced for 2030 is to reach about 50,000 electric vehicles, accompanied by 5,000 charging stations and around 50 megawatts of installed capacity dedicated to charging.

Let’s compare the two essential figures: the 50 MW envisaged for charging represent about 1% of a national peak of 5,000 MW.

A second calculation yields the same order of magnitude. Suppose the 50,000 vehicles each travel 50 kilometers per day and consume on average 20 kilowatt-hours per 100 kilometers. Each car would need about 10 kWh daily, i.e., 500 megawatt-hours for the entire fleet.

Spread over eight hours, this consumption would represent an average power of 62.5 MW, equivalent to 1.25% of the current peak.

A modest charge at the national level can indeed become significant in a neighborhood if several vehicles plug in simultaneously behind the same transformer.

The difficulty does not lie only in the total amount of electricity produced, but in where and when it is demanded.

The right question is not: “Can the grid produce enough electricity for 50,000 cars?”

It is more: “Will the grid be able to properly distribute their charging?”

The electric vehicle can avoid the peak, but it won’t do it by itself

The peak consumption observed during the heat wave was mainly caused by the intensive use of air conditioning. The most critical period was in the mid-afternoon, when temperatures reached their maximum and devices operated simultaneously.

An electric car can, in theory, completely avoid this window. It stays parked for several hours and does not need to receive all its energy immediately.

Its charging can be scheduled between 10 PM and 6 AM, when national demand decreases. For STEG, this nighttime consumption could even present an advantage: it would allow selling more electricity using plants, lines, and substations already built during hours when these infrastructures are less stressed.

But this complementarity is by no means automatic.

A driver who comes home at 6 PM and plugs in immediately can contribute to a new evening peak. A vehicle connected during the day at the workplace can also charge during the most stressed hours.

Without price signaling, automatic scheduling, or a management system, the vehicle does not naturally evade the peak: it charges when its owner plugs it in.

In the longer term, some cars could also return part of their energy to the grid. This technology would turn batteries into distributed storage.

However, it requires compatible vehicles, bidirectional charging stations, appropriate regulation, and a business model that does not yet exist at scale in Tunisia.

For now, the first objective should be simpler: make sure cars charge when electricity is available, and not when it is scarce.

The real shock of the week: trust

The July electricity crisis did not only reveal a temporary shortage of capacity. It also highlighted a trust problem.

A consumer who knows in advance their shedding window, its probable duration, and the means to report a fault can organize themselves. A motorist who knows that their vehicle will automatically charge after midnight has no reason to fear waking up with a dead battery.

Conversely, a citizen surprised by a blackout, without a precise calendar, without local information, and without visibility on when power will return, will hesitate to entrust their mobility autonomy to the same system.

A electric car is not only a means of transport. It requires its owner to believe that electricity will be available in the right place, at the right time, and at a predictable price.

In this area, the quality of STEG’s communication can become almost as important as the capacity of its power plants.

At the national level, the electric car does not yet threaten the Tunisian grid. But this reassuring conclusion does not answer the essential question: why is its development still so slow despite tax advantages and a seemingly sufficient number of charging stations?

The answer lies less in production capacity than in vehicle prices, STEG pricing, the delay of smart meters, and an energy dependency that electrification of transport could simply relocate elsewhere.