Friday, the rating agency Fitch Ratings kept France’s sovereign debt rating at A+ with a stable outlook, meaning it does not foresee changing it in the short or medium term, despite higher estimates for the public deficit.
Fitch noted in its statement that the French economy remains “resilient” – large and prosperous, with a solid banking sector and a diversified investor base – even though “growth in the near term will be modest.”
This rating decision comes in a tense economic context a few weeks before the government’s latest budget presentation, ahead of the presidential election and at a moment when the debt issue is at the heart of the debates.
Economy Minister Roland Lescure said on Friday that he “took note” of the rating agency’s decision, in a statement sent to the press.
“The government remains fully mobilized to contain the public deficit and the debt, within a responsible and balanced framework, in order to guarantee in the long run financial stability as well as the competitiveness and growth of the French economy,” the occupant of Bercy added.
Since September 2025, Fitch has rated France at A+, considering its debt to be of upper-medium quality.
Even though the agency kept its stable outlook on Friday, it notes that France is penalized “by high and rising debt, a political and social context making budgetary consolidation difficult, as well as weak growth potential.”
At its last update, early March, Fitch already praised the solidity of the French economy and its institutions, while pointing to a high public debt and a political context limiting the possibilities to consolidate public finances.
At the time, Fitch was projecting a public deficit of 4.9% for 2026, a figure close to the government’s target of 5%.
But since then, Economy Minister Roland Lescure himself has admitted that this target would be “difficult to achieve.”
Friday, Fitch indeed turned more pessimistic, forecasting a deficit of 5.2% of GDP in 2026, 5.5% in 2027 and 5.2% in 2028.
“These deficit projections are higher than those of the last revision, reflecting weaker growth, higher interest expenditures and additional defense commitments,” argued the rating agency.
The other two major rating agencies are set to issue their assessments of France’s rating in the coming months: Moody’s on October 23 then S&P Global Ratings on November 27.
S&P Global Ratings lowered France to A+ with a stable outlook last autumn, just like Fitch.
Moody’s still rates French debt Aa3, i.e., at the lower end of the “high quality or good” category.
