Business bankruptcies continue to rise in Germany, despite a more favorable economic outlook. In September 2026, 1,666 partnerships and corporations were declared insolvent, or 13 % higher than a year earlier. At the same time, Berlin raised its growth forecast for 2026 to 1.3 %, highlighting a recovery that remains uneven.
According to a study published Thursday, October 8, by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), the number of insolvencies recorded in September increased by 9 % compared to August. It is 85 % above the average for September months from 2016 to 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic.
Key figures
1,666 insolvencies in September 2026: +13 % year-on-year and +9 % month-on-month.
4,880 cases in the third quarter: −2.3 % compared with the second quarter.
41,000 jobs affected in the third quarter, i.e., −10 % quarter-on-quarter.
1.3 % : new German growth forecast for 2026, versus 0.5 % previously.
Nearly 4,900 insolvencies in the third quarter
Across July to September 2026, the IWH recorded 4,880 insolvencies, a slight decrease of 2.3 % compared with the second quarter. That quarter had reached its highest level in 21 years. Despite this decline, the third quarter remains the second-worst since 2005 for the companies covered by the indicator.
The number of jobs affected by the failures of major employers fell by 10 % quarter-on-quarter, to about 41,000. For September alone, the institute counted around 11,600 positions in the top 10 % of insolvent companies: 28 % less than in August and 44 % less than in September 2025, but still 131 % above the average of September months from 2016 to 2019.
Among the well-known companies affected by insolvency proceedings in the third quarter, the institute cites the retail chains Hellweg, BayWa-Baumärkte and Mäc-Geiz.
Services and several regions under pressure
The difficulties do not affect only industry. In the third quarter, insolvencies reached record highs since IWH began publishing data in 2020 in several service activities: finance and insurance, information and communication, as well as professional, scientific, technical, and other services to businesses.
New records for this same observation period were also recorded in Hamburg, Hesse, Rhineland-Palatinate, Baden-Wuerttemberg and Thuringia. In this last region, around 2,500 jobs were affected in the third quarter, notably following industrial failures.
German companies remain facing energy and financing costs, the rising prices of certain materials, and underutilization of production capacities. These factors complicate the private investment recovery, according to the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy.
Berlin raises its growth forecast to 1.3 %
Paradoxically, the prospects for the German economy have improved. On Thursday, October 8, the Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, Katherina Reiche, presented the government’s autumn forecast: 1.3 % growth of GDP in 2026, versus 0.5 % in the spring projection, i.e., a revision of 0.8 percentage points.
Berlin then anticipates a rise of 1.1 % in 2027, followed by 0.6 % in 2028. The rebound in the first half of 2026 was mainly driven by exports and public consumption, despite higher energy prices.
In the second quarter, German exports benefited in particular from purchases of energy-intensive industrial products intended to replenish inventories in the face of global shortages. Public spending on infrastructure and defense should also support activity.
The rebound in household consumption could, however, remain limited by price increases, despite rising real wages. As for private investment, the ministry forecasts only a gradual recovery from 2027 onward, due to high costs and geopolitical uncertainties.
A possible decline in insolvencies by year-end
For Steffen Müller, head of insolvency research at the IWH, defaults remain at an exceptionally high level. The institute’s leading indicators point to a still substantial level in October, but a possible decrease across the fourth quarter.
These figures come from judicial insolvency announcements cross-referenced with the financial data of companies. They concern partnerships and corporations: their scope is therefore narrower than the total number of business defaults recorded by official statistics, typically published with about a two-month lag.
The evolution of the German economy will remain closely linked, according to Berlin, to the situation in the Middle East and Ukraine. A lasting easing of energy prices would support the rebound, while high costs would continue to weigh on businesses and consumers. The rise in insolvencies and the improvement in GDP forecasts thus reflect different evolutions across sectors and companies, without constituting two contradictory outcomes.
Sources : IWH Institute, press release of October 8, 2026; German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, Autumn Forecast of October 8, 2026.
