Commodity markets are moving in opposite directions on Monday. Gold prices have surpassed the $4,200 per ounce mark, continuing their rise for the third straight session, while oil prices retreated, with a barrel of Brent nearing $103.
These movements come in a context marked by the prospects of a relaxation of Russian restrictions on diesel exports, persistent geopolitical tensions, and the anticipation of new U.S. economic data.
Gold continues its rise in a climate of uncertainty
The precious metal continues to advance as investors monitor geopolitical developments and the outlook for U.S. monetary policy.
Gold, traditionally considered a safe haven in times of uncertainty, remains sensitive to evolving international tensions, but also to expectations regarding U.S. interest rates.
Investors are notably awaiting the release, this week, of several key inflation indicators in the United States. These statistics could shed new light on upcoming decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed).
An eventual decline in interest rates could boost gold’s appeal, which does not generate income, while keeping rates high could limit its gains.
Oil falls with prospects for a return of Russian diesel
In the oil market, prices recorded a retreat on Monday, ending two consecutive sessions of gains. Brent crude neared $103, in a context of expectations for an improvement in international fuel supply.
This development follows statements by U.S. President Donald Trump, who said on Friday that his administration had reached an agreement allowing Russia to supply several hundred thousand tonnes of diesel.
According to these statements, this initiative could be accompanied by a partial relaxation of Moscow’s restrictions on diesel exports.
The prospect of additional deliveries of Russian diesel could help ease tensions on global supply and limit inflationary pressures related to energy costs.
However, the scale of volumes actually available, the terms of their sale, and their impact on prices remain to be determined.
Russia-Ukraine: a possible energy ceasefire
Meanwhile, Donald Trump has stated that Russia and Ukraine had reached an agreement on an “energy ceasefire” to take effect immediately.
This announcement concerns a particularly sensitive aspect of the conflict, as energy infrastructure is a major stake for both countries.
If such an agreement were confirmed and actually implemented, it could help reduce some risks weighing on energy facilities.
However, the terms of this potential ceasefire and its effective implementation remain to be confirmed. Markets continue to monitor diplomatic and military developments likely to influence energy supplies.
Middle East: geopolitical tensions remain under watch
Uncertainties also remain significant in the Middle East, a strategic region for the production and transport of hydrocarbons.
According to reports, Saudi Arabia’s main airport would have again been targeted on Sunday by Iran-backed Houthi militants.
These developments fuel concerns about regional security and the risks of disruptions to infrastructure and supply chains.
The persistence of these tensions remains a potential support factor for oil prices, despite prospects for increased Russian fuel supplies.
It also contributes to the uncertain climate in which the gold market operates.
Gold and oil: two markets driven by different factors
The rise in gold and the decline in oil illustrate the different forces currently shaping international markets.
On the oil side, expectations regarding the global fuel supply play a major role. An increase in the availability of Russian diesel could help ease certain segments of the energy market.
For gold, investors are paying particular attention to geopolitical risks, the evolution of the dollar, and the outlook for U.S. interest rates.
A prolonged drop in oil could also, if it lasts, help temper some inflationary pressures. However, a temporary decline in crude prices is not by itself sufficient to determine the inflation trajectory or Fed decisions.
In the coming sessions, traders should thus continue to monitor three major elements: the evolution of Russian fuel exports, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and upcoming U.S. inflation data.
These factors could simultaneously influence gold and oil prices, without necessarily moving in the same direction.
