Tunisia plans to spend 68.895 billion dinars in 2027, i.e., 5.320 billion more than the initial 2026 budget, but revenues would rise by only 1.720 billion.
The deficit would thus reach 14.615 billion dinars, while the State would also have to repay 13.307 billion in principal of debt. Wages, subsidies, social spending, ministerial credits: what do these amounts actually fund, and what room remains to build schools, equip hospitals and develop infrastructure?
A budget that grows three times faster than its revenues
The 2027 budget project envisions 68.895 billion dinars in payment credits, compared to 63.575 billion in 2026, i.e. an increase of 8.37%.
Expected revenues rise from 52.560 to 54.280 billion dinars, a rise of 3.27%.
In other words, for every additional dinar of revenue expected in 2027, the State plans a little over three dinars of additional expenditure.
The gap would be covered by the deficit, which would rise from 11.015 billion dinars in 2026 to 14.615 billion in 2027, an increase of around 32.7%.
This gap constitutes the first challenge of the project: the State aims to maintain its social commitments and strengthen certain expenditures, while ordinary resources grow much more slowly.
Wages: nearly 40% of the budget
The remuneration expenditures planned for 2027 reach 27.349 billion dinars, up 8.2%.
They represent about 39.7% of the total budget.
The project also authorizes an overall civil service headcount of 692,702 public agents and plans 32,557 new positions, of which a portion corresponds to regularizations of existing situations.
The remuneration of public agents directly funds the operation of schools, hospitals, the administration, security and other public services.
It remains, however, a recurring expense: unlike a one-off investment, a durable increase in the wage bill feeds into future budgets.
Thus the question is not only how much the State will allocate to salaries, but also whether the recruitments and additional expenditures will actually improve the quality of services provided to citizens.
Subsidies: about 11.85 billion, including 7.09 billion for energy
The second major expenditure item concerns subsidies.
The project provides an envelope of 11.846 billion dinars, distributed among energy, essentials and transport.
Electricity and fuel subsidies alone amount to 7.090 billion dinars, i.e. nearly 60% of the planned subsidies.
Of this amount, 3.676 billion are destined for the Tunisian Electricity and Gas Company (STEG) and 3.414 billion for the Tunisian Refining Industries Company (STIR).
Essentials benefit from an envelope of 4.036 billion dinars.
Transport support is set at 720 million dinars, notably to preserve reduced fares and benefits granted to certain categories of users.
These expenditures help limit prices directly borne by households. They also constitute a significant cost for public finances.
The scale of energy subsidies depends particularly on international oil prices and the exchange rate.
Oil at $80 a barrel: a decisive assumption
The 2027 budget rests on an average Brent price assumption of $80 per barrel, compared with $63.3 retained in the initial forecasts for 2026.
The government also anticipates a 2% increase in domestic consumption of petroleum products and electricity.
The energy expenditure forecast remains therefore sensitive to any new rise in international prices.
If oil remains durably above the assumed level, subsidy expenditures could exceed the initially allocated credits, unless adjustment measures are taken.
Conversely, a sustained easing of international prices could ease subsidy needs.
The budget also provides for partial settlement of old commitments toward STEG and STIR, for a cumulative amount of 820 million dinars.
So this is not only about financing energy consumption in 2027: part of the credits also aims to address obligations inherited from previous years.
Social expenditures: 3.768 billion to support vulnerable households
The plan reserves 5.090 billion dinars for social, economic and cultural interventions, of which 3.768 billion is in the social domain.
This latter envelope represents about 74% of the intervention credits concerned.
The declared objectives notably include supporting modest households, improving living conditions, reducing poverty and strengthening social cohesion.
These interventions should not be confused with subsidies for fuels or food products.
The mechanisms, beneficiaries and financing modalities are different.
It is also important to distinguish a global budget envelope from the sums actually paid to households: not all social credits necessarily correspond to direct monetary transfers.
To judge the effectiveness of these expenditures, one must know the number of beneficiaries, the average amounts received, the eligibility criteria and the observed results.
Which ministries receive the most credits?
The budget report published on October 23 details the envelopes proposed for several major state missions.
Education retains the largest ministerial budget, with 9.18 billion dinars, up 5.6%.
The Ministry of Industry, Mines and Energy benefits from 7.89 billion dinars, a 48.2% increase.
The Interior receives 6.56 billion dinars, up 5.1%, while National Defense has 5.62 billion, an increase of 12.3%.
The strong growth of the Industry and Energy budget should be linked to the weight of energy subsidies.
It would thus be misleading to automatically equate this 48.2% rise with an equivalent increase in industrial investments.
Likewise, a ministerial allocation does not exclusively correspond to new spending: it also covers salaries, operating resources, interventions and investments under the mission.
Debt: the State will have to mobilize 28.122 billion dinars
The 14.615 billion deficit does not represent the entire financing needs of the State.
In 2027, the Treasury will also have to repay 13.307 billion dinars of public debt principal, including 6.823 billion of domestic debt and 6.484 billion of foreign debt.
With 200 million dinars of net loans and advances from the Treasury, the total financing need reaches 28.122 billion dinars.
The project contemplates mobilizing:
- 19.845 billion dinars of domestic borrowings;
- 6.877 billion dinars of external borrowings;
- 1.400 billion dinars of other treasury resources.
One must avoid a common confusion: the 13.307 billion dinars of principal repayment do not add to the 68.895 billion of budget expenditures to measure the deficit.
They fall under the Treasury financing plan. A portion of the new borrowings will thus be used to repay old debts.
Thus the gross amount of borrowings is higher than the budget deficit alone.
Central Bank: a new facility of 9.8 billion dinars
The project provides for a waiver allowing the Central Bank of Tunisia to place facilities at the Treasury’s disposal amounting to up to 9.8 billion dinars.
These financings would be granted interest-free, repayable over fifteen years, with three years of grace.
The use of the Central Bank would represent about half of the planned domestic borrowings.
However, one should not automatically add the 9.8 billion to the 19.845 billion of domestic borrowings: the facility is a financing mechanism that fits into the overall project architecture.
This mechanism would allow the State to reduce its immediate dependence on certain interest-bearing funding sources.
It raises however questions regarding monetary financing, liquidity conditions, inflation control, and the relations between the Treasury and the Central Bank.
The effect will depend notably on the amounts actually mobilized and on the evolution of the economy in 2027.
And investment, what is really left?
This is probably the most important question of the budget.
The State must finance the expenditures necessary to operate public services, preserve the support mechanisms for households, repay its debts and, simultaneously, free up resources to develop infrastructure.
In 2026, investment expenditures recorded in the budget were about 6.36 billion dinars, i.e. nearly 10% of the initial budget.
But execution is another challenge.
According to the budget results as of end-June 2026, investments actually realized reached 1.665 billion dinars, against 2.427 billion allocated to fuel compensation.
In the first half of 2026, the State had therefore spent 762 million dinars more on subsidizing fuels than on carrying out its budget investments.
This proximity illustrates the constraint weighing on financing development projects.
For 2027, certain sector envelopes show ambitious aims.
The economic budget plan notably includes 1.321 billion dinars of investments in health, compared with 780 million in 2026.
But these announcements are not sufficient to measure the global effort.
One must have the consolidated amount of the State’s investment expenditures for 2027, their regional and sectoral distribution, and the execution schedule.
The difference is essential between recording a credit, awarding a public contract and actually delivering a hospital, a school or infrastructure.
Who will pay the 68.9 billion dinars?
The first answer lies in tax revenues.
The project provides 49.600 billion dinars in taxes, against 4.330 billion in non-tax revenues and 350 million in external grants.
Tax revenues would thus represent about 91.4% of ordinary revenues and expected grants.
They will come from levies paid by households and businesses, notably through VAT, income and profits taxes, duties and various taxes.
It would, however, be incorrect to equate the 49.6 billion with new taxes: these are the total expected tax revenues in 2027.
The rest of the financing will largely rely on debt and other Treasury resources.
The bill is therefore spread over time.
Taxpayers participate in the immediate financing of expenditures through tax revenues. Borrowings, in turn, bind public finances in subsequent years, through principal repayments and interest.
The final burden borne by households will depend on the distribution of levies, the evolution of prices, the public services received, and the economic spillovers of the expenditures undertaken.
The question that MPs should ask
The 2027 budget proposal displays social priorities, energy support and strengthening of several public services.
These objectives respond to real needs.
But parliamentary scrutiny should also address the results expected in exchange for the additional credits.
What improvements will be made to schools, hospitals and transport? How many investment projects will actually be delivered? What share of subsidies will directly benefit modest households? And how will the government cover its financing needs without restricting access to credit for businesses?
The question is all the more important as expenditures rise faster than revenues, while the budget remains exposed to oil price variations and debt conditions.
The real challenge of 2027 will not merely be to mobilize 68.9 billion dinars. It will be to demonstrate that after funding salaries, subsidies and state commitments, Tunisia still has the means to carry out the investments essential to its future growth.
It is on this ability to transform budget appropriations into public services, infrastructure and jobs that the budget’s execution will be judged.
