The week of October 26-30, 2026 concentrates several central bank decisions in a context of expensive oil and currency jitters. The United States Federal Reserve will announce its decision on Wednesday, October 28, the European Central Bank on Thursday, October 29, and the Bank of Japan on Friday, October 30. For Tunisia, the challenge is to identify possible consequences on the dollar, the euro, imports and financing, without conflating market scenarios and decisions already taken.
Three benchmarks before the meetings
Brent: 116.72 dollars per barrel at the close on Friday, October 23 (+3.14% on the session). Euro/dollar: 1.1193 dollars per euro according to the ECB reference rate of October 23. Rates: Fed target range of 3.75 to 4.00%, ECB deposit rate at 2.50% ahead of their decisions.
A particularly busy calendar from October 28 to 30
The Federal Reserve’s official schedule foresees a meeting of its monetary policy committee on October 27 and 28, with a decision announced on Wednesday, October 28. The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) meets on October 28 and 29; its decision is scheduled for Thursday, October 29, followed by a press conference.
Other meetings complete this sequence: the central banks of Canada and New Zealand on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of Japan on Friday, October 30. Markets will follow both the statements and the guidance given for the coming months.
The Fed amid expensive oil and inflation
At its September meeting, the Fed raised its target range by 0.25 percentage point, to 3.75%–4.00%. Its statement of September 16 noted that economic activity remained solid but inflation was elevated.
Rising oil prices can sustain inflation while weakening demand. Several analyses anticipate keeping rates unchanged, but no decision is set in stone before the official statement. The remarks by the Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, will also be scrutinized.
The ECB facing the European slowdown
In the euro area, the ECB’s deposit facility rate has stood at 2.50% since September. The institution must balance inflationary pressures linked to energy with signs of slowing in certain activities.
The reference rate on Friday, October 23 was 1.1193 dollars per euro. This dated quote does not prefigure market reactions. A divergence in rhetoric between the Fed and the ECB can modify exchange expectations, without mechanically imposing a single direction on the euro.
Oil, a source of uncertainty for all central banks
According to Reuters, Brent finished Friday, October 23 at 116.72 dollars per barrel, i.e., an increase of 3.55 dollars and 3.14% for the session. It gained about 6% for the week, against a backdrop of tensions around Middle East supply routes.
An oil shock combines two difficult-to-manage effects: it raises certain components of inflation and can simultaneously reduce purchasing power, consumption and activity. The decisions of each central bank depend on its own economy and mandate.
What this could mean for Tunisia
Tunisia buys goods and services invoiced in euros, as well as products whose prices are expressed in dollars, notably some energy imports. The impact on the final bill depends not only on the euro/dollar rate, but also on the dinar’s exchange rate against each currency, volumes and purchasing conditions.
A prolonged rise in Brent could weigh on the cost of energy imports. International rates and investors’ expectations can also influence external financing conditions. The Fed and the ECB do not set the policy rate of the Central Bank of Tunisia.
Thus, the indicators to watch are the Fed’s decision on October 28 and the ECB’s on October 29, the Bank of Japan’s statement on the 30th, Brent, and the exchange rates actually published by the BCT. The scenarios presented are not investment advice.
