China’s foreign trade continues to post exceptional performance. According to customs data released on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, the country’s exports rose by 35.2% year-on-year in October, driven notably by technology products related to artificial intelligence. In the first ten months of the year, the trade surplus reached 1,040 billion dollars.
The Essentials
+35.2% for exports and +41.6% for imports in October, in current dollars; $105.3 billion in monthly surplus and $1.04 trillion cumulative from January to October.
A surplus that already exceeds 1 trillion dollars
China’s exports stood at $412.3 billion in October 2026, versus $307.1 billion for imports, according to the General Administration of Customs of China. The monthly surplus stood at $105.3 billion, compared with $133.5 billion in September. Because export and import amounts are rounded to one decimal place, their difference may show a slight rounding discrepancy with the official balance.
From January to October, the cumulative surplus reached $1.04 trillion. China thus crossed the 1,000-billion threshold for the second consecutive year, even before the close of the fiscal year. The year 2025 ended with a record surplus of about $1.2 trillion. The total trade of goods, imports and exports combined, rose by 20% in the first ten months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.
The Rise of AI fuels exports
Electronic equipment, semiconductors, and products tied to the global demand for artificial intelligence are among the engines of this growth. Automobiles also participate in the dynamics of Chinese exports. However, this is not to claim that AI alone explains the overall 35.2% rise: this rate applies to all exported goods.
October’s increase exceeded Reuters’ economists’ median forecast of 33.5%. It follows a rise of 36.3% in September. The pace remains very high, even as it slows slightly from month to month.
Imports also accelerating sharply
China’s imports rose by 41.6% year on year in October, versus 31% in September. This development, higher than the 32% increase expected in Reuters’ survey, partly explains the narrowing of the monthly trade surplus.
This strong growth in overseas purchases is not by itself sufficient to establish a durable rebound in domestic consumption: the figures cover very diverse categories, notably components, raw materials and goods destined for production. They must be interpreted in the context of the period and the scope of the customs territory.
China’s export power in the face of trade tensions
The level of the surplus underscores the role of Chinese industry in international value chains. It also fuels debates over overcapacity, price competition, and the dependence of certain sectors on external demand. Tariffs and trade restrictions imposed by several partners remain risks for exporting firms.
According to customs statistics reported by Hong Kong public radio RTHK, exports to the United States rose by 32.9% year on year in October. This spot variation does not prefigure the future evolution of trade relations between Beijing and Washington.
Adel Khelifi
