27%. This is the increase in export levels recorded by Tunisian companies benefiting from the Tasdir+ program. But behind this figure lies a fact that theory had not foreseen: public money almost did not open new markets. It served to deepen those that exporters already knew, and that is what makes the result so instructive for leaders.
This behavior, which several classic international trade models had not anticipated, questions how one actually converts a nudge into revenue. For a business leader, the lesson goes beyond the scope of a public program.
This conclusion comes from a policy brief published by the Association of Tunisian Economists (ASECTU) with the support of the Savoirs éco project, funded by the European Union and implemented by Expertise France. It builds on broader research published in 2025 as a Discussion Paper of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). It is the first randomized evaluation of a Tunisian public program of this kind.
A program tested like a medicine
The principle is simple: a 50% reimbursement of eligible expenditures incurred within one year, under an approved Business Plan, with a cap of 50,000 USD per firm. The originality lies in the method. Eligibility was randomized through five calls for proposals in 2018 and 2019, involving 487 firms.
This organized randomness allows comparing truly similar firms and ruling out invisible differences that bias most evaluations, which rely almost entirely on non-experimental methods.
The brief cross-checked tax declarations, social security records, transaction-by-transaction customs data, Tasdir+ administrative data, and surveys of firms. The result is robust: the effect on exports is statistically and economically significant.
The Paradox of Depth
That is where the study shakes up certainties. Theory predicts that subsidies covering only fixed costs of market access, and not variable costs, should mainly push firms to enter new markets or to launch new products.
Yet customs data show no differential evolution in the number of destinations or products between aided firms and others. Positive effects on becoming exporters exist, but they are not statistically significant.
In other words, the money did not blow up the map of exports. It financed more marketing and customer prospecting in markets already known. The stated objective of diversification was achieved only to a limited extent, while export volume did indeed grow.
Who really benefited?
