The Essentials
- 11,392 billion dinars (MDT) energy deficit as of end-September 2026.
- +37% compared with the first nine months of 2025.
- 3,079 billion dinars worsening of the deficit in a single year.
- +36% for energy imports in value.
- 117 dollars per barrel Brent in September 2026, versus 68 dollars a year earlier.
An energy deficit that has worsened since 2024
According to energy situation data, Tunisia’s energy trade deficit rose from 8,737 MDT as of end-September 2024 to 11,392 MDT as of end-September 2026.
After a decline recorded in 2025, the deficit thus widened by 3,079 MDT in a single year, also surpassing its 2024 level by 2,655 MDT.
This evolution, calculated taking into account the Algerian gas export levy, reflects a deterioration of Tunisia’s energy trade balance.
| Period | Energy deficit (MDT) |
|---|---|
| End September 2024 | 8,737 |
| End September 2025 | 8,313 |
| End September 2026 | 11,392 |
Source: energy situation data. Comparison of cumulative totals as of the end of September for each year.
Energy imports rise by 36%
As of end-September 2026, Tunisian energy imports recorded a 36% increase in value compared with the same period in 2025.
Exports of energy products also rose, with a 34% increase in value. This trend, however, was not sufficient to prevent the worsening energy trade deficit of the sector.
Imports of petroleum products increased particularly, showing a 50% rise in value.
Regarding crude oil, imported quantities rose by 24%, while their value advanced by 50%.
These gaps show that the evolution of the energy bill depends not only on traded volumes but also on international prices and exchange-rate fluctuations.
Brent reaches $117 per barrel in September 2026
The evolution of oil prices is a key factor in the rising cost of energy exchanges.
In September 2026, the average Brent price stood at $117 per barrel, compared with $68 in September 2025, an increase of $49.
Brent had reached $91 per barrel in August 2026.
This rise occurs in a context of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, notably around risks to oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz.
The reported data also show a 33% increase in the Brent monthly average price between the two reference periods, rising from $71 to $94 per barrel.
What impact does the exchange rate have on the energy bill?
Tunisian energy trade is particularly sensitive to fluctuations in the exchange rate between the Tunisian dinar and the U.S. dollar, the main currency used in oil and gas transactions.
The data show a 3% improvement in the average monthly value of the dinar against the dollar between the considered periods.
However, a slight deterioration of 1% in the exchange rate is also reported for September 2026 compared with the same month in 2025.
These two trends relate to different comparison periods and should not be confused.
The average appreciation of the dinar may have moderated part of the renchirement of dollar-denominated energy products, without offsetting the rise in international prices.
The price of Algerian gas also rises
Natural gas imported from Algeria is another major factor in Tunisia’s energy bill.
Between the periods ended September 2025 and September 2026, the average price of Algerian gas rose by 4% in Tunisian dinars and 7% in U.S. dollars.
This development follows a generally downward trend in gas prices observed from January 2024 to April 2026, before a rebound.
Thus, the rise in the price of imported gas represents an additional factor to consider in the evolution of energy costs.
Oil exports grow strongly
Despite the worsening energy deficit, Tunisia’s exports of petroleum products recorded a substantial increase.
As of end-September 2026, they rose by 80% in volume and 135% in value, compared with the same period in 2025.
This growth reflects higher exported volumes, accompanied by an even more pronounced increase in their value.
However, this dynamic did not offset the rise in the energy import bill.
Overall, Tunisia’s energy deficit stands at 11,392 billion dinars as of end-September 2026, a level higher than those recorded at the same dates in 2024 and 2025.
Prospects for the coming months will depend notably on international oil and gas prices, on traded volumes, and on the dinar’s exchange rate against the dollar.
