This worsening occurs in a context where imports rose by 13%, at a pace higher than that of exports (+7.8%). The energy deficit remains one of the main components of the external trade imbalance.
The Essentials
- Exports : 56,299.6 MD, up 7.8% year-on-year.
- Imports : 79,846.8 MD, up 13%.
- Trade deficit : 23,547.2 MD, i.e., an aggravation of 5,090.7 MD compared with January-October 2025.
- Coverage rate : 70.5%, vs 73.9% a year earlier.
- Energy deficit : 12,026.1 MD, representing about 51.1% of the total trade deficit (TN calculation).
A trade deficit that widens by more than 5 billion dinars
According to the Tunisia external trade results, calculated at current prices by the INS, exports reached 56,299.6 MD between January and October 2026, up from 52,214 MD during the same period in 2025.
Imports stood at 79,846.8 MD, up from 70,670.5 MD a year earlier.
This evolution resulted in a widening of the trade deficit by 5,090.7 MD, i.e., an increase of about 27.6% compared with the first ten months of 2025 (TN calculation).
At the same time, the import coverage rate by exports fell from 73.9% to 70.5%, i.e., a drop of 3.4 percentage points.
Trade in goods: comparison between 2025 and 2026
| Indicator | Jan-Oct 2025 | Jan-Oct 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports (MD) | 52,214.0 | 56,299.6 | +7.8% |
| Imports (MD) | 70,670.5 | 79,846.8 | +13.0% |
| Trade balance (MD) | -18,456.5 | -23,547.2 | Deficit up by 27.6% |
| Coverage rate | 73.9% | 70.5% | -3.4 points |
Source : INS, trade at current prices, January-October 2025 and 2026. Trade deficit variation: TN calculation.
Energy accounts for more than half of the trade deficit
The breakdown of the trade balance by product group highlights the significant weight of the energy bill in the external trade imbalance.
The deficit for energy products stood at 12,026.1 MD, compared with 9,181.5 MD during the first ten months of 2025.
The energy deficit thus rose by 2,844.6 MD year over year, i.e., an increase of about 31% (TN calculation).
Excluding energy, the trade deficit reaches 11,521.2 MD, according to INS figures.
Which product groups weigh on the trade balance?
| Product group | Balance (MD) |
|---|---|
| Energy | -12,026.1 |
| Raw materials and semi-finished products | -5,475.1 |
| Capital goods | -3,695.9 |
| Consumer goods | -3,072.9 |
| Food | +722.7 |
Source : INS. Cumulative balances for the first ten months of 2026, in millions of dinars. Minor rounding differences may occur.
With the exception of the food group, which yields a surplus of 722.7 MD, all other major product groups show a negative trade balance.
Exports: strong growth in agro-food industries and olive oil
The evolution of exports varies significantly across sectors.
Mechanical and electrical industries register a 9.1% increase, while agro-food industries exports rise by 19.6%.
This latter development is notably accompanied by a rise in olive oil sales, whose value moved from 3,062.1 MD to 4,197.8 MD between the first ten months of 2025 and 2026.
Exports from the energy sector also rose by 28%, with a notable increase in refined product sales, which reached 1,476.1 MD versus 790.5 MD a year earlier.
Conversely, exports declined by 14.4% in the mines, phosphates and derivatives sector, and by 4.2% in the textiles, clothing and leather sector.
Imports: increases across all major categories
On the import side, INS data show growth across all major product groups.
Energy imports register the largest increase, up 30.4%.
Purchases of food products rise by 18.8%, those of raw materials and semi-finished products by 9.6%, while imports of consumer goods increase by 9.4%.
Capital goods show a 6.2% rise.
The European Union absorbs 70.2% of Tunisian exports
The European Union remains the main destination market for Tunisian exports, with a share of 70.2% of the total during the first ten months of 2026.
Exports to the EU reached 39,529.4 MD, up from 36,787.9 MD in the same period in 2025.
Specifically, Tunisian sales rose to France (+5.1%), Italy (+4.2%), and Germany (+4.5%).
However, they declined toward some European partners, notably Ireland (-9.3%) and Greece (-9.9%).
Arab countries: strong rises toward Egypt and Saudi Arabia
On Arab markets, Tunisian exports showed mixed movements.
They rose by 71.9% toward Egypt and 68.3% toward Saudi Arabia.
Conversely, they fell by 23% toward Morocco and by 10.7% toward Algeria.
Exports to Libya remained almost stable, with a slight decrease of 0.1%.
Imports: increase in purchases from the EU, China and Turkey
Imports from the European Union reached 35,730.7 MD during the first ten months of 2026, up from 30,607.4 MD in the same period of 2025.
They represent 44.7% of total Tunisian imports.
Purchases from France rose by 17.7%, while those from Italy increased by 15.1%.
Conversely, imports fell from Finland (-26.2%) and Portugal (-4.9%).
Excluding the European Union, imports rose from Turkey (+8.7%), China (+8.2%) and India (+5.6%).
Conversely, purchases from Russia fell by 55.2%, while those from the United Kingdom declined by 21.7%.
A trade imbalance amplified by the energy bill
The results published by INS highlight not only an increase in Tunisia’s trade with the outside world, but also a widening deficit as imports rise faster than exports.
Energy alone accounts for just over half of the trade deficit observed between January and October 2026.
Despite growth in agro-food, mechanical and electrical exports, the cover rate of imports by exports deteriorated by 3.4 percentage points year on year.
These data, established at current prices, describe the evolution of trade values. They do not, by themselves, allow distinguishing price effects from those of traded volumes.
