Africa is not on the military front line, but it could find itself on the economic front line. As the American and Israeli war against Iran settles into a prolonged phase, concerns are mounting on the continent. Behind the fighting, it is already prices, currencies, supply chains, and budget balances that are beginning to wobble.
In a joint report, the African Union, the African Development Bank, the United Nations Development Programme and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa sound the alarm. Their assessment is grave: this war represents a “serious risk” for Africa, at a moment when much of the continent has not yet regained its pre-pandemic growth pace.
A commercial dependency that makes Africa vulnerable
The report recalls a reality often underestimated: Africa remains closely tied to the Middle East in commercial terms. The region accounts for 15.8% of African imports and 10.9% of the continent’s exports.
In other words, when a major conflict erupts in this strategic space, the consequences do not hesitate to cross the borders of the war zone. An increase in transport costs, disruptions to energy routes, or a spike in insurance premiums are enough to quickly undermine many African economies.
The specter of a new cost-of-living crisis
The authors of the report warn against a rapid evolution of the situation. The trade shock triggered by the war could, they say, transform into a genuine cost-of-living crisis on the continent.
The mechanism is alarmingly simple. If fuel becomes more expensive, transport costs more. If transport costs more, the prices of imported goods follow. And when the prices of food, energy and services rise at the same time, it is the most vulnerable households that bear the brunt of the shock.
Adding to this are higher insurance costs, tensions on local currencies and increasing pressure on public budgets. For already constrained states, every additional point of strain becomes a factor of imbalance.
An African growth already fragile even before the crisis
What makes this alert even more worrying is the starting point. The report notes that, in most African countries, growth remains weaker than before the Covid-19 pandemic.
The continent therefore approaches this new zone of turbulence with limited room for maneuver. And if the war were to last beyond six months, the signatories institutions estimate that African GDP growth could decrease by 0.2 percentage points in 2026.
On paper, the decline might seem modest. But for economies already under pressure, such a setback can be enough to curb investment, worsen unemployment, weaken public finances and further complicate the fight against poverty.
Energy and fertilizers at the heart of concerns
One of the most concrete dangers identified by the report concerns energy supply, and more precisely disruptions affecting liquefied natural gas from the Gulf.
These difficulties are not limited to the energy sector. They also affect fertilizer production, a key element for agricultural campaigns. And the timing is not incidental: the farming season runs until next May.
If fertilizers become more expensive or less available, the consequences could be heavy: higher production costs, lower yields, increased pressure on food prices and worsening food insecurity in several countries.
Currencies weakening, debts weighing more
The report also cites recent data from the African Development Bank showing that the currencies of 29 African countries have lost value.
This depreciation is not a mere technical indicator. It has immediate and very concrete effects. It raises the cost of servicing external debt, increases the import bill and sometimes forces central banks to draw more on their foreign exchange reserves.
For the most exposed countries, this means added pressure on finances already stretched. And when the currency falls while global prices rise, the shock becomes twofold: financial on one hand, social on the other.
The risk of a continent caught in new rivalries
The report does not limit itself to macroeconomic aspects alone. It also expresses a broader geopolitical concern. The authors fear that the intensification of international rivalries around the war could also fuel new forms of competition for influence in Africa.
Ports, strategic minerals and security in the Red Sea are among potential flashpoints. In such a context, certain African fragilities could be amplified by external power struggles, with effects that vary by region.
Humanitarian aid that risks drifting away
Another danger, more discreet but just as important, concerns international financing. The report fears that the prolongation of the war could push donors to reorient some of their resources toward other priorities.
For several African countries already dependent on external aid in humanitarian, health or food matters, this shift could prove particularly heavy. Less aid, in a context of higher prices and weaker growth, would create an ever harder social equation to manage.
A distant war with very near consequences
This document, at heart, conveys a simple truth: a war fought far from African capitals can nonetheless disrupt the daily life of the continent very directly. It can push prices up without firing a single shot in Africa. It can weaken currencies, strain budgets, complicate harvests and shrink the fiscal space available to governments.
Africa thus faces a major risk: absorbing another imported shock at a moment when it has not yet fully healed the economic wounds left by the pandemic and the successive crises of the past years.
If the conflict becomes entrenched, the danger will no longer be merely a temporary tension on the markets. It could become a slower, deeper, and more unequal slowdown, which African households would pay for in daily life.
Adel Khelifi
