The global coffee market collapsed, with Robusta price slipping nearly 5% in a single session. The pressure from a record Brazilian supply and the strength of the US dollar triggered a sharp decline on both exchanges.
World coffee prices underwent a sharp correction on the London and New York exchanges during last weekend’s session. Selling pressure intensified following reports of a marked improvement in global supply, coupled with the vigor of the US dollar, thus exerting considerable pressure on the commodity market.
More precisely, at market close, the Robusta coffee price on the London exchange for the May 2026 contract plummeted by $170 per ton, a drop of 4.68%, to settle at $3,455 per ton. This is the lowest price for this contract in almost seven months. The July 2026 contract also fell by $155 per ton, or 4.38%, to reach $3,372 per ton.
Market analysts say Robusta coffee prices are under strong pressure as supply shows signs of increasing again, while harvest prospects in the main producing countries become more favorable.
One of the main factors contributing to this decline is the Brazil production forecast. Benchmark players have revised upward their coffee production forecasts for the 2026-2027 season, bringing them to a record level of 75.3 million bags, an increase of 20.8% from the previous season. The prospect of abundant supply from the world’s leading producer worries investors, who fear near-term overproduction.
The drop in coffee prices is also influenced by the rebound of the US dollar. The dollar index reached its highest level in about three and a half months. A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for investors holding other currencies, which reduces demand.
Regarding weather conditions, the Minas Gerais region in Brazil enjoys favorable rainfall, which is conducive to the final phase of coffee tree development. However, the market remains faced with risks, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East disrupt shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz and lead to higher transportation and insurance costs for international roasting companies.
