On the 182nd day of the war between Iran and the United States and 73 days after the signing of the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran, the balance of power remains opened on several fronts: financial sanctions, oil exports, the Strait of Hormuz, American rearmament in the Middle East, and persistent tensions in Lebanon.
Washington says it wants to further strengthen the economic isolation of Iran, while Tehran asserts it has enough oil to finance its budget and conditions normalization in the Strait of Hormuz on the respect of American commitments.
Key points
Sanctions : Washington steps up economic pressure on networks linked to Iranian oil exports.
Oil : the White House says Iran has not exported crude from its shores since the resumption of the blockade, while Tehran claims it has enough volumes to fund its budget.
Hormuz : about 6,000 sailors aboard up to 400 ships remain blocked in the Gulf according to the International Maritime Organization.
Diplomacy : Tehran says a return to negotiations remains possible, but ties any détente to the adherence of American commitments.
Washington prepares a new round of economic tightening
The U.S. Treasury Department announced new measures against networks, intermediaries and channels it accuses of helping Tehran export its oil and circumvent international sanctions.
According to a U.S. Treasury official cited by Newsmax, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent intends to intensify efforts to economically isolate Iran at a meeting of his G20 counterparts scheduled for next week.
American officials are expected to press group members particularly on honoring the sanctions imposed on Iran.
Thus Washington presents the latest measures as a message addressed not only to Tehran, but also to states and financial institutions that might continue to conduct transactions with Iranian entities targeted by the sanctions.
Washington states that Iranian crude exports have been halted
The confrontation directly concerns oil.
The White House asserts that Iran has not exported any crude from its shores since the resumption of the American blockade last month.
Washington also claims that approximately 1,500 ships carrying 750 million barrels of oil have passed through the Strait of Hormuz under American protection and that Iranian mines, which, according to American authorities, were located in international shipping lanes, have been removed.
These American assertions are indirectly challenged by Iranian discourse.
Fars News Agency, citing sources within Iran’s Ministry of Petroleum, indeed reports that Tehran would have sufficient quantities of crude to sell to cover this year’s budget.
However, nothing provided allows independently to establish the volume Iran would currently be able to export.
Tehran conditions the opening of Hormuz on American commitments
Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian stated that Iran could open the Strait of Hormuz if Washington respected the commitments set out in the memorandum of understanding.
He specifically called for the lifting of the blockade and sanctions, the release of Iranian frozen assets, as well as the stop of Israeli attacks against Lebanon.
The Iranian president also asserted that his country did not wish for war, but would continue to defend itself against what he calls aggression.
According to him, Iran favors dialogue to resolve differences, without accepting threats or military pressure.
Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, took a similar stance, saying that a return to diplomacy remained possible, provided that the United States understands, according to him, that its policy of pressure is not yielding the desired results.
6,000 sailors blocked aboard up to 400 ships
Despite American statements about securing certain sea routes, the Hormuz strait crisis remains far from solved for international maritime transport.
The International Maritime Organization (IMO), a UN specialized agency, said Saturday that around 6,000 sailors, aboard up to 400 ships, remained stranded in the Gulf and unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Its Secretary-General, Arsenio Dominguez, estimated that the situation in the strait “is not yet resolved.”
According to the IMO, the consequences extend far beyond the crews concerned. Disruptions are affecting supply chains for fuels, fertilizers and other essential goods, with potential repercussions on economies in the short and long term.
Hormuz thus remains one of the main vulnerability points of the current crisis.
Hormuz: the figures of the maritime crisis
About 6,000 sailors remain affected by the disruptions.
They are aboard up to 400 ships blocked in the Gulf.
The IMO warns that the disruptions are affecting supply chains for fuels, fertilizers and other essential goods.
Washington is said to have bolstered its ammunition stocks in the Middle East
Militarily, The Wall Street Journal, citing American officials, reports that Washington has accelerated the transfer of large quantities of munitions to the Middle East to face Iran.
Meanwhile, White House advisor Stephen Miller presented U.S. operations against Iran as a major military success.
He claimed that Iranian naval and air forces, radar systems and part of the military command chain had been neutralized. He also stated that the Strait of Hormuz was now “open to the United States and closed to Iran.”
These statements reflect the assessment of the American administration and do not, on their own, establish the full state of Iranian military capabilities.
Iran vows to resist sanctions
The Iranian government, for its part, says it intends to maintain simultaneously its diplomatic effort and its defensive capability.
In an official statement, Tehran declares its intention to resist the sanctions which it calls “unjust,” while pursuing diplomacy based on three principles: dignity, wisdom and national interest.
The Iranian authorities also acknowledge the importance of the economic and social difficulties caused by the sanctions and the latest conflicts.
Tehran’s ability to continue selling enough oil to fund its budget has become one of the main stakes of this economic standoff.
Trump also announces a oil deal with Venezuela
The Iran dossier unfolds as the administration also seeks to broaden its access to other oil sources.
President Donald Trump announced a deal described as “massive” with Caracas, reportedly involving more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil reserves.
According to the Financial Times, which quotes a White House official, a joint project linking the U.S. government with an experienced private operator in Venezuela would benefit from 100-year concessions on fields totaling 63 billion barrels of proven reserves.
This announcement comes while gasoline prices in the United States are under pressure due to tensions in the Middle East.
Venezuela possesses, according to cited figures, the largest proven crude oil reserves in the world, with about 303 billion barrels, ahead of Saudi Arabia with 268 billion and Iran with 208 billion.
Iranian oil: two opposing narratives
Washington says Iran has not exported any oil from its shores since the resumption of the American blockade.
Tehran says it has enough oil to sell to cover this year’s budget needs.
Bottom line: the information available in the cited items does not allow independently to establish the volumes of crude Iran is currently able to market.
Lebanon also remains in the regional equation
The Iranian crisis continues to overlay the Lebanese dossier as well.
Massoud Pezeshkian included halting Israeli operations against Lebanon among the conditions advanced by Tehran in its demands to Washington.
Meanwhile, the Israeli daily Maariv, citing a security source, reports that Israel would not consider withdrawing from the area around the Ali al-Taher hills in southern Lebanon.
At this stage, the different fronts remain closely linked: economic pressure on Iran, control of the Strait of Hormuz, the security of oil supplies, the American military presence, and the situation in Lebanon.
Despite the memorandum signed 73 days ago, Washington and Tehran remain engaged in a confrontation where military pressure is now complemented by a decisive battle over oil revenues and access to the international financial system.
