As the United States approaches its November 3 midterm elections, Washington has virtually paused its strikes against certain Iranian devices around the Strait of Hormuz, while maintaining its naval blockade.
Donald Trump, meanwhile, has set aside the application of several new sanctions envisaged by a law targeting Russia and Iran. In the Gulf, incidents are mounting and the risks to oil shipping remain high.
The essentials
• Fires: targeted American pause on Iranian anti-ship missile and drone launchers, without lifting the blockade.
• Navigation: Iran says a supertanker carrying more than two million barrels of crude oil struck a naval mine; the vessel has not been identified.
• Sailors: another tanker, with 15 Indian sailors aboard, was hit by a projectile; no injuries reported.
• Sanctions: an October 16 decree neutralizes several new measures of the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, without removing the preexisting U.S. sanctions.
Oil: Brent closed Friday at $109.86 a barrel.
Washington reduces certain strikes, but does not renounce the blockade
According to an Axios investigation published Friday, October 16, the U.S. military command in the Middle East has almost entirely halted in recent weeks its strikes against Iranian anti-ship missile and drone launchers near the Strait of Hormuz. A U.S. official attributed this decision to the White House’s intention to avoid a new escalation before the November 3 elections.
This pause remains limited to certain offensive operations. Washington continues its naval blockade targeting Iranian shipments, and American forces say they continue to protect merchant ships and respond to threats. Donald Trump had announced on October 8 that he would not launch major new strikes against Iran before the elections, while maintaining economic and military pressure.
The commander of Centcom, Admiral Brad Cooper, says that 400 ships carrying around 100 million barrels of oil traversed the strait in the past week. These volumes are presented by the American official and have not been independently verified in the information reviewed. They contradict Iran’s claim that the passage was entirely closed.
Iran announces explosion of a supertanker carrying more than two million barrels
The IRGC Navy announced on Friday that a supertanker carrying, it says, more than two million barrels of crude oil had struck a naval mine while attempting to pass through Hormuz. The incident reportedly triggered a large explosion and a fire. Images circulated by Iranian media show a substantial plume of smoke and flames at sea.
Tehran says the vessel had disabled its location and radar systems and was taking an unauthorized route, with presumed American military support. Its name, flag, owner, and any potential human toll have not been released. Neither the exact cause of the explosion nor the alleged navigation circumstances could be independently verified.
The Iranian command asserts that the strait remains closed to ships not complying with the rules it intends to enforce. These statements indicate a policy of pressure on commercial navigation, but do not by themselves prove the complete closure of all international traffic.
In a separate incident, India’s Ports and Navigation Minister, Sarbananda Sonowal, confirmed that the tanker MT ST 3 had been struck by a projectile in the strait, with 15 Indian sailors on board. All were declared safe, with no injuries reported. Indian authorities have not definitively identified the origin of the projectile.
Trump suspends several new sanctions planned against Russia and Iran
The White House published on October 16 a decree implementing exemptions to the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, text signed on September 18. The law provides for various financial and trade sanctions, as well as tariffs potentially up to 500% on certain Russian products and 100% on the products of the five largest Russian oil and gas importers, according to the conditions laid out in the act.
Trump decided to suspend the application of several of these provisions, citing U.S. national interest. The distinction is crucial: the decree does not lift all sanctions already imposed on Russia or Iran. It postpones, for now, certain new sanction obligations and tariffs that were to come into effect, while leaving the administration the option to reexamine these exemptions.
The decision comes as Washington seeks to contain energy prices. It drew criticism in the United States Congress, with several lawmakers saying the easing undermines economic pressure on Moscow amid the war in Ukraine. The official text expressly states that certain prior U.S. sanctions against Russia remain in force.
Trump talks of a “military maneuver” and claims heavy Iranian losses
Donald Trump framed the operation conducted against Iran as a “military maneuver” rather than a war, while insisting that the American blockade prevented Iranian ships from crossing Hormuz.
The president claimed the destruction of 289 Iranian aircraft and asserted that 159 ships of the Iranian fleet had been sunk in three days. He also claimed that Iranian military officials at several levels had been eliminated. These tallies advanced by Trump could not be independently corroborated and should not be presented as officially established losses.
Economically, the U.S. command estimates the blockade has cost Tehran around $25 billion in oil revenues. Brad Cooper also says the United States has frozen $350 million in cryptocurrency assets linked to Iran. These are American estimates and claims; Iranian authorities have not confirmed these amounts.
The effectiveness of the blockade would not be absolute: a Reuters investigation, based on maritime data and satellite imagery, identified at least eight ships carrying liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) of Iranian origin since mid-July, as well as a ship that carried aviation fuel. Centcom says it has turned back 135 ships during the three months of renewed blockade, according to its October 13 tally.
Tehran highlights its missiles in the face of the “mother of all bombs” threat
Iran’s interim defense minister, Majid Ebn al-Reza, reacted to reports of American plans to use the conventional bomb GBU-43/B, nicknamed the “mother of all bombs”. In a post on X, he downplayed the scope of the weapon’s name and size, arguing that the consequences of a new attack would also hit the international image, the economy, and U.S. electoral calculations.
The Iranian official maintains that the country’s ballistic capabilities have shifted the balance of power. This is a political and military statement from Tehran, not an independent assessment of its capabilities. On his side, Donald Trump ruled out the use of nuclear weapons against Iran, while not excluding all conventional options. Reports of GBU-43/B use plans by CNN have not been confirmed as an order to strike.
Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian also denounced the consequences of American sanctions, noting that they penalize Iran but also fuel economic difficulties beyond its borders.
Up to $150,000 for a captain: the cost of maritime risk soars
Tension is reflected in crew working conditions. According to the Financial Times, some tanker captains transiting Hormuz can receive a monthly pay of up to $100,000, plus a $50,000 bonus per passage. Depending on circumstances, pay for other mariners can be four to six times higher. These amounts concern exceptional cases in a dangerous zone, not a universal scale for the profession.
The rise in premiums adds to insurance costs against war risks, freight, and navigation constraints. It contributes to higher hydrocarbon transportation costs, with possible repercussions for importing countries, including Tunisia.
Oil markets reflect this uncertainty. On Friday, October 16, Brent closed at $109.86 per barrel, up 3.7%, after briefly touching $110 in trading. U.S. crude WTI stood at $101.41 per barrel (+3.5%). These prices result from a confluence of tensions on supply and transport, notably in the Middle East and in Russia, and cannot be attributed to a single maritime incident.
A fragile military pause, awaiting an Iranian response
According to Axios, the White House and Qatari mediators are still awaiting Tehran’s response to an American counter-proposal aimed at restarting discussions on a pathway out of the crisis. The nuclear file, sanctions relief, and the conditions for navigation through the Strait remain central points of disagreement.
The situation remains paradoxical: Washington is reducing some bombardments while maintaining naval and economic pressure; Tehran asserts control over the passage while ships continue to circulate. As long as attacks on shipping continue and no agreement is reached, the risk of further energy disruptions remains high.
