Tunisia starts 2026 in a more tenable position than a year ago. The major vulnerability indicators have eased, external debt weighs less heavily, and monetary stability seems better contained.
For an economy long dominated by financing concerns and the risk of external disruption, this inflection deserves to be highlighted.
But the situation remains biased if read too quickly. For behind the improvement in aggregates, another reality is emerging: the country is stabilizing its balances without yet sufficiently rebooting its growth levers. The Tunisian risk is no longer merely that of a macroeconomic derailment. It becomes the risk of fragile normalization, unable to deliver a genuine transformation toward a model of sustainable prosperity.
External debt on the decline
The first positive signal comes from the external front. The stock of external debt fell to 125 billion dinars in 2025, or 73.8% of GDP, compared with nearly 84% in 2024. On the surface, the trajectory is encouraging: it signals an improvement in overall sustainability and reduces pressure on the country’s sovereign risk profile.
But in macrofinance, the level never tells the whole story. The quality of debt matters as much as its volume. And it is precisely here that fragility persists. The share of short-term debt reaches 41.9%, a worrisome level, while trade credits account for 27.7% of the total. In other words, Tunisia is easing its stock, but remains exposed to a relatively unstable funding structure.
