The share of foreign investors in U.S. debt reaches 32% in the fourth quarter of 2025, its lowest level since 1997, according to Morgan Stanley data.
This proportion reflects a long-running trend over several years, even though absolute volumes remain sizable: by the end of 2024, foreigners still held $9.23 trillion of U.S. securities, including $7.78 trillion in Treasuries and $1.45 trillion in Treasury bills.
The securities held with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York have fallen below $3 trillion, a threshold not seen in sixteen years. In the four weeks preceding March 19, 2026, the decline reached $75 billion, which Deutsche Bank strategists say corresponds to net selling of about $60 billion. Over a year, the cumulative decline in the holding data exceeds $238 billion.
Indicators diverge depending on the source
Interpreting these figures requires caution. The Fed’s holding statistics incorporate valuation effects tied to changes in bond prices and fluctuations in exchange rates, as well as transfers of assets between jurisdictions. These movements do not necessarily correspond to direct disposals of securities.
The official data from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, published under the Treasury International Capital (TIC) framework, present a different picture. According to these figures, foreign central banks sold only $34 billion net of Treasuries over the entire year 2025, barely 1% of their estimated $3.5 trillion in reserves. The scale of outflows therefore remains modest relative to total holdings.
The Chinese case and transfers to state-owned banks
China’s official holdings of U.S. Treasury securities are at their lowest in seventeen years. Brad Setser, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, nuances this reading: part of the apparent decline could reflect transfers to Chinese state-owned banks rather than net sales on the market. The amounts actually held by Beijing could be higher than the published data.
This internal transfer mechanism is documented in other emerging economies, where monetary authorities allocate their reserves across several public entities for management or discretion reasons. Analyzing the real flows therefore requires cross-referencing multiple statistical sources before concluding a structural disengagement.
