Gold moves again above $4,360 per ounce, but that level tells only part of the story. The yellow metal remains about 22% below its January 2026 record and has just logged a third straight week of decline.
In Tunisia, the 18-karat fine was still sold around 390 to 405 DT per gram at the start of September. TN re-calculated: with the gaps actually observed between the metal’s value and the jewelry price, the 500 DT threshold could reappear around $5,400 to $5,600 per ounce — that is, essentially at the level of the January record.
The first figure to remember: gold is not at its record
On Friday, September 11, spot gold rose by 1.1% to $4,363.01 per ounce at 17:40 GMT, according to a Reuters tally. The metal nevertheless remained down by about 1.5% for the week, its third consecutive week of decline.
We must especially place this level within the 2026 trajectory.
The Kitco reference sets the historical record at $5,589.38 per ounce on January 28, 2026. Reuters had, according to its own price feed and timestamp, recorded a near intraday peak at $5,594.82 during the sequence of January 29.
The difference between the two references is marginal for the analysis: at $4,363, gold sits about 22% below its January peak.
What this changes in market interpretation
Talking about $5,000 as an extreme scenario would be misleading: gold has already far surpassed this level in January. Even an ounce at $6,000 would represent only about 7% more than the historical peak.
The real Tunisian question: has the global decline been reflected?
For a Tunisian buyer, this is probably the most important question.
On January 28, when gold worldwide was setting its record, the theoretical value of a gram of 18-karat expressed in dinars stood around 374 DT, once the international price and the exchange rate of the period are taken into account.
Today, using the price of $4,363.01 and the latest BCT reference rate available in the data consulted, namely 1 dollar = 2.9094 DT as of September 9, 2026, the theoretical value of the metal contained in one gram of 18-karat comes out to about 306 DT.
| Reference | Ounce | Theoretical value of 18-karat |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 peak | ≈ $5,589 | ≈ 374 DT/g |
| September 11, 2026 | $4,363.01 | ≈ 306 DT/g |
Thus, the drop in 18-karat metal value expressed in dinars is about 18% between the January peak and today, versus roughly 22% for the ounce in dollars. The exchange rate explains part of the difference.
However, TN does not have a jewelry-price survey conducted in January with the same method and among the same professionals. It would therefore be incorrect to claim that jewelers pass through, or do not pass through, the entire decline.
That is now the main figure missing to measure precisely the transmission from the global market to Tunisian display windows.
What TN’s surveys actually say about the local market
TN, however, has several recent surveys among professionals.
On August 12, Wajih Mesfar, representative of the Regional Chamber of Jewelry Artisans of Sfax, indicated that the scrap gram of 18-karat was trading between 300 and 310 DT, versus 390 to 400 DT for the 18-karat new.
On September 2, after the ounce fell from 4,625 to 4,324 dollars according to the figures he provided, the 18-karat scrap was back between 280 and 300 DT, while the 18-karat new remained between 390 and 405 DT.
For 9-karat, the same survey gave 120 to 130 DT for scrap gold and 200 to 210 DT for the new.
TN calculates an observed commercial gap of 28 to 33%
The September 2 survey allows for the first time to calculate an order of magnitude from data actually observed in Tunisia.
That day, the ounce was shown at $4,324. The USD/TND rate observed on the market was around 2.916. The metallic value of a gram of 18-karat thus came out to about 304 DT.
Against a new-sold price between 390 and 405 DT, the observed gap was therefore between roughly 28% and 33%.
This gap should not be equated with a jeweler’s “profit margin.” It includes manufacturing, labor, technical losses, overhead, distribution, and commercial margin.
The TN method
1. Convert ounce to grams: 1 troy ounce = 31.1035 grams.
2. Convert dollars to dinars with the rate corresponding to the date studied.
3. Apply the fineness: 18 karat = 75% pure gold.
4. Compare with the price actually reported by Tunisian professionals on the same day.
At what ounce level does the gram reach 500 DT?
Rather than arbitrarily applying a 20% or 30% premium, TN took the 28% to 33% gap actually observed on September 2.
For the scenarios below, the exchange rate is held constant at 2.9094 DT per dollar, the latest BCT reference rate available in the data consulted. These are therefore simulations and not price forecasts.
| Ounce | The value of 18-karat metal | With gap +28% | With gap +33% |
|---|---|---|---|
| $4,363 | 306 DT | 392 DT | 407 DT |
| $5,000 | 351 DT | 449 DT | 467 DT |
| $5,500 | 386 DT | 494 DT | 513 DT |
| $5,589 – January record | 392 DT | 502 DT | 522 DT |
| $6,000 | 421 DT | 539 DT | 560 DT |
| $6,300 | 442 DT | 566 DT | 588 DT |
The result is far more interesting than a simple forecast at 500 DT: with the pricing structure TN observed in early September, the 500 DT threshold appears between roughly $5,360 and $5,570 per ounce.
In other words, the global market would not even need to noticeably exceed its historical record for some 18-karat jewelry to reach 500 DT per gram in Tunisia, provided that the exchange rate and cost structure remain comparable.
The 24-karat paradox: a figure not to use for calculating margins
The TN survey of August 12 also included a price of around 416 DT per gram for the 24-karat new, while the ounce was quoted around $4,430.
At that international level and with the exchange rate of that period, the pure metal value was already very close to that amount.
It would therefore be inconsistent to use this figure as a reference to measure the markup applied to a finished jewel. It may correspond to a form of gold that is very lightly processed — ingot, coin, or other product close to investment gold — or to a different categorization from that used for 18 karat.
TN thus excludes it from its calculation of the gap between metal and jewelry.
The 500 DT forecast made in August appears in a different light
On August 25, Hatem Ben Youssef, president of the National Chamber of Jewelry Traders, indicated that some simple jewelry was already selling around 420 DT per gram.
He estimated that the finished gram could reach between 470 and 500 DT by year-end if the rise continued.
That forecast might have seemed spectacular at the time. TN’s calculations show that it actually corresponds to a scenario in which global gold would simply return near the peak it had already reached in January.
$6,000: only 7% above the previous high
That is also how to read the big-bank forecasts.
In a note published on June 9, 2026, J.P. Morgan Global Research indicated an average price near $6,000 per ounce in Q4 2026, with a level that could go toward $6,300 in 2027.
These figures seem striking relative to the current $4,363. But $6,000 represents only about 7.3% more than the January record.
By contrast, Bank of America cut its forecast for 2026 average price by 14% on July 8, to $4,360 per ounce, due to a more restrictive Federal Reserve. The bank nevertheless estimated that $5,000 remained attainable once the monetary-tightening cycle ended.
Both scenarios thus illustrate a very wide range of uncertainty: an annual average near current levels at BoA, versus a rise toward $6,000 by year-end in the J.P. Morgan scenario.
September 16 will be the next key date
In the short term, one of the main variables will not come from the gold market itself, but from Washington.
The U.S. Federal Reserve will hold its next meeting on September 15 and 16, with a monetary decision expected on Wednesday the 16th.
U.S. inflation rose 0.4% in August month over month and remains at 3.4% year over year. After release of these figures, Reuters reported on Friday that markets, according to the CME FedWatch tool, priced in an 87% probability of a rate hike — about nine chances in ten.
A rate hike is normally unfavorable to gold: the metal pays no interest, while bonds become more remunerative.
This is one of the reasons the metal remains volatile despite geopolitical tensions and energy inflation.
The dollar can completely change the Tunisian calculation
All the previous scenarios deliberately assume an unchanged exchange rate.
But gold is priced in dollars. If the dinar loses 5% against the American currency, the value of gold expressed in dinars rises mechanically by about 5%, even if the ounce price does not move.
Conversely, an appreciation of the dinar can absorb part of an international rise.
This is also why TN does not apply the current rate of 2.9094 DT to the older August readings: each historical comparison must use the exchange rate of the corresponding period.
So, do we really have to wait for $6,000 to see 500 DT?
No.
That’s probably the main takeaway from TN’s calculations.
With a per-ounce price around $5,000, the metal value of 18-karat would be close to 351 DT. Applying the gap actually observed in September, the price of the new jewelry would come out between 449 and 467 DT.
At $5,500, we already reach between 494 and 513 DT.
At the exact January record level, the same model would yield between approximately 502 and 522 DT per gram.
And in the J.P. Morgan scenario at $6,000, the range would rise to around 539 to 560 DT, all else equal.
The number to remember
The gram at 500 DT does not require a new gold supercycle. With the commercial conditions observed by TN in early September, a simple return of the ounce to its January record would theoretically suffice to place some 18-karat jewelry around or above this threshold.
But the other half of the story remains to be documented: when the ounce reached nearly $5,590 in January, how much was the gram actually sold for in Tunisian jewelers?
It is this comparison between January and September — more than the mere evolution of Wall Street — that will show how far global gold fluctuations are actually passed through to the Tunisian consumer.
