Imed Derouiche | Expert in energy, hydrogen and digital transition
We were presented with ELMED as a cable oriented toward the North: Tunisia would produce electricity, notably renewable, and export it to Italy. Six hundred megawatts of capacity to cross the Mediterranean. An appealing promise. But while this future was being drawn, the Tunisian summer reminded us of a more immediate reality: before selling electricity, we must first be able to guarantee it to those who live and work here.
The cable could then change direction. Tomorrow, ELMED could be more useful to Tunisia for importing electricity than for exporting. During periods of high demand, it would offer an additional supply route. The idea is serious: the interconnection was designed to operate in both directions. But it raises a question that is asked too rarely: what Italian electricity will Tunisia actually have access to in 2031 or 2032, and at what price?
Because tomorrow’s Italy will not be the one depicted in the project’s initial presentations. Artificial intelligence needs data centers, and data centers need electricity, day and night. If these facilities multiply in Italy, they could absorb a portion of the production that Tunisia would hope to buy during favorable hours. A stronger Italian demand could also make these purchases more expensive.
Here is the paradox of ELMED: Tunisia could end up depending on imports that Italy’s new needs would make less available or less affordable.
Yet it would be excessive to conclude that the cable will be useless. An interconnection is not a contract promising 600 MW at all times. It is a capacity to exchange. It can help a country during certain consumption peaks and allow it to sell at other times. Its value will thus be measured by the actual use of the cable: how many hours will be imported? How many hours will be exported? At what prices? And with what effect on Tunisian electricity security?
The requests to connect data centers in Italy already give a reason to ask these questions. They do not prove that all projects will be built. They show, however, that the hypothesis of durably surplus and cheap Italian electricity cannot be taken for granted.
Thus Tunisia must prepare ELMED for several possible futures. It must strengthen its production and its grid, develop renewable capacities that primarily meet its own needs, and assess exchanges with Italy hour by hour, season by season. Above all, it must avoid replacing a too-simple promise — “we will export 600 MW” — with another: “Italy will provide us with what we lack.”
ELMED’s alpha was exporting north. Its omega could be Tunisia’s electrical security. Between the two, AI has come to change the equation. Before losing the North, let’s ask the only question that matters: will this cable serve a Tunisian energy strategy, or are we hoping it will replace it?
Sources and references
ELMED, official project presentation: https://elmedproject.com/fr/
World Bank, “Tunisia’s energy sector can become an engine for green growth,” November 28, 2023: https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/arabvoices/tunisias-energy-sector-can-become-engine-for-green-growth
Terna, 2025 grid development plan, data center connection requests: https://www.terna.it/en/electric-system/efficient-territorial-planning/national-electricity-transmission-grid-development-plan
IEA, Energy and AI, global projections of data center electricity demand: https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai/energy-demand-from-ai
