A study by the Tunisian Order of Engineers, presented this Tuesday, estimates that the summer of 2027 will constitute a decisive milestone for the country’s electrical system, ahead of a gradual improvement expected from 2028.
According to the study, pressure on production capacities and the rise in electricity demand will continue. The energy deficit will remain high during the summer of 2027, making the next season an important test of the system’s ability to meet the country’s needs. The balance indicators are expected to improve gradually by the end of 2028, thanks to a set of urgent measures and proposed structural reforms.
For the authors, the difficulties encountered during the summer of 2026 are not only due to climatic conditions. They reflect structural challenges already diagnosed by the Council of Engineering Sciences as of September 2023. The study nonetheless asserts that it is possible to overcome them, provided that the recommended measures are implemented, the necessary decisions and funding are secured, and deadlines are respected.
Five factors behind the difficulties
The study attributes these difficulties to five main factors. It cites near-total dependence on imported gas and its rising cost, as well as the effect of high temperatures on demand, driven by the intensive use of air conditioners, at a time when turbine efficiency falls by about 25%.
Additionally, delays in certain projects and investments, real demand higher than what some indicators reflect, and increased pressure on the networks are noted. Some transformers and lines are now operating at the limit of their capacity, while energy losses are estimated at around 20%.
The deficit, having accumulated over several years, leads the study to advocate for a global, long-term approach, in which urgent measures are accompanied by structural solutions that progressively rebuild the margin of electrical safety. It stresses the distinction between installed capacity and actually available capacity: a capacity only counts once the project is completed, connected to the grid, and brought into operation, and any delay directly affects the balance between supply and demand.
Emergency measures and structural reforms
The study proposes a set of measures: recovering existing production capacities, adding new capacities, accelerating the development of renewable energies coupled with storage, rationalizing demand, and reducing losses.
In the immediate term, it recommends creating a national crisis-management cell operating continuously and adopting a three-level alert system. It also advocates ensuring the continuity of power supply to vital installations, scheduling outages when necessary while informing citizens in advance, and launching periodic campaigns to curb consumption and combat fraud and illegal connections. It also calls for strengthening energy cooperation with Algeria, Libya, and Italy to secure gas supplies during peak periods.
For 2027 and 2028, the suggested structural reforms include the creation of an independent regulatory body, the drafting of an electricity code, and the appointment of a government commissioner for energy. The study also mentions improving revenue recovery, supporting vulnerable groups, investing in human resources, and strengthening cybersecurity.
Regaining a margin of safety and greater stability by the end of 2028, the study concludes, requires not only increasing capacities but also ensuring the effective commissioning of projects, securing gas supplies, reducing losses, and better managing demand.
