Christine Lagarde’s early departure from the presidency of the ECB, set for February next year, has opened a succession battle that is already mobilizing the major capitals of the euro area.
There are two frontrunners already emerging: Klaas Knot, the former governor of the Dutch central bank, and Pablo Hernández de Cos, the former head of the Bank of Spain and currently at the helm of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
The latter is favored by economists but according to a European diplomat favorable to Klaas Knot’s candidacy, Knot appears to be the strongest candidate. He highlights a context marked by tensions in the bond markets and the rise in rates, in the face of inflation that remains high, fueled by the war in the Middle East.
The designation of the next ECB president also fits into a broad renewal of the leadership of the Frankfurt institution.
Behind the jockeying for individuals lies, in reality, a delicate distribution of posts. Paris would push to obtain the influential role of Chief Economist if the presidency went to Klaas Knot.
A third compromise candidate could, however, emerge for the presidency if the major countries could not agree, as happened in 2019 with Christine Lagarde’s surprise arrival.
Beyond the presidency, the posts of Chief Economist, held by the Irishman Philip Lane until May 2027, as well as that of a member of the Executive Board, to replace the German Isabel Schnabel, who is due to join the IMF in early 2027, are to be filled.
