The Qatar is attempting to revive discussions between Washington and Tehran ahead of the U.S. elections on November 3, while Benjamin Netanyahu would be calling for a new military operation against Iran. At the same time, attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz rekindle economic concerns: oil soars and the cost of the war grows.
This Saturday, October 31, 2026, 245 days after the outbreak of the war between the United States, Israel and Iran, the diplomatic outcome remains uncertain. A memorandum signed on June 17, 2026, 136 days earlier, had opened the way to de-escalation and to a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. But divergences over the Iranian nuclear program, the American sanctions and freedom of navigation persist.
Key figures to note
More than 12 hours: duration of talks conducted by Qatari mediators in Tehran on Friday, October 30, according to Axios.
117.64 dollars: Brent closing price on Friday, October 30, for the December contract approaching expiry.
47.1 billion dollars: American estimate of the war’s military costs as of October 16, excluding damages to bases.
10.48 billion dinars: Tunisia’s energy trade deficit in the first nine months of 2026, according to the INS.
Intensive mediation just days before the U.S. elections
According to the American site Axios, representatives of Qatar spent more than twelve hours Friday in Tehran, while keeping in touch with the White House. The discussions are to continue Saturday in Doha, where Iranian negotiators are expected. The goal is to agree, within a few days, on a series of reciprocal gestures allowing the resumption of direct negotiations, notably on the nuclear issue.
Other regional players, including Egypt, Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, are also pressing for a return to dialogue before the midterm elections in the American Congress, scheduled for November 3. The Pakistani military expresses cautious optimism, while warning against actors who might derail mediation efforts.
Obstacles remain substantial. Washington is demanding concessions from Tehran on the nuclear issue as soon as the process resumes. Tehran insists, as a precondition, on lifting the American maritime blockade, access to its frozen assets, and the ability to resume its oil exports.
The Speaker of Iran’s Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, says that the seven conditions set by his country have already been transmitted to the intermediaries and that no progress is possible without their acceptance. Iran also ties the normalization of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to American sanctions and hostilities. An initiative attributed to vice president JD Vance has generated varying reports: Donald Trump said a message from Vance concerned medical supplies, while several outlets view it as an opening for talks.
Netanyahu would push for strikes after the vote
Also according to Axios, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pressing Donald Trump to undertake a joint operation against Iran immediately after the U.S. elections. The outlet also cites an American official who says a heavy Republican defeat could increase the likelihood of a military decision. The White House, however, denies any link between electoral results and a potential strike decision.
Within the American administration, positions diverge: JD Vance as well as envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner would be in favor of restarting the talks. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio would be more skeptical about a nuclear agreement with the current Iranian authorities. Trump himself doubts, according to the outlet, his ability to secure an agreement he would deem acceptable.
During a rally in Florida, the American president reiterated that he would never allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. He claimed that Iranian capabilities had been greatly degraded, notably asserting that 159 Iranian military vessels had been destroyed. This tally, presented as a statement from Donald Trump, is not an independently verified assessment. He also claimed that oil traffic through the Strait is now higher than it was seven months ago.
Tensions are also rising in Tehran. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s statements on the economic cost of the war for Europe. Mentioning a figure of 100 billion euros cited in that debate, he pledged devastating retaliation against any new attack and said that the “red lines” are now a thing of the past. Iranian official Mohsen Rezaei also accused European leaders of backing the Israeli-American strikes before denouncing their economic consequences.
Hormuz: ships attacked, 25 sailors rescued and conflicting versions
Maritime security remains the other flashpoint of the crisis. On Friday, the Omani navy evacuated the 25 crew members of the merchant ship RITI, Panamanian-flagged, after an incident that caused a fire off the Musandam peninsula. Omani authorities said the sailors received care. They also announced the evacuation of an injured crew member from an Indian vessel hit in the Strait, without identifying the attacker.
The British maritime security center UKMTO reported on October 30 a vessel struck by an unidentified projectile 40 nautical miles south of Iran’s Lavan Island. A fire broke out, but the crew were reported safe and no environmental impact had been observed at this stage. In another notice, the agency reported that an oil tanker carrying crude had been hit by an unknown projectile as it left the Strait of Hormuz.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed or described several incidents involving tankers, state media mentioning as many as four ships on fire after collisions with mines and the violation of mandated routes. These claims should not be confused with the tally established by independent maritime authorities, which are still investigating the nature and origin of several attacks. The Guards also claimed to have shot down an American drone over Kharg Island, information not independently confirmed.
Separately, the U.S. military command for the Middle East (CENTCOM) says it has helped its Gulf partners export more than 1.5 billion barrels of crude since the summer. It also claims to have supported more than 3,000 Strait crossings over six months. These are cumulative figures released by the U.S. military, not a measure of current daily traffic.
Hormuz: what the oil data show
In its October 14 report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that oil flows through the strait stood at 10.9 million barrels per day in September 2026, after a rebound of 3.7 million bpd in one month.
Oil exports from Gulf producers were then at 13.9 million bpd, more than 75% of their pre-war level. These September figures do not necessarily describe traffic after the late-October attacks.
Brent at 117.64 dollars: markets price in escalation risk
Oil markets reacted immediately to the uptick in risks in the Gulf. According to prices reported by Reuters, Brent for December delivery, whose contract was due to expire Friday, October 30, closed at 117.64 dollars per barrel, up 2.4% on the session. The January contract, now the most active, finished at 113.43 dollars. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at 104.12 dollars, up 2.08%.
For the month of October overall, Brent gained 13.6% and WTI 15.2%, according to Reuters. The difference between futures contracts means one should not mix their prices in comparisons.
The IEA warned on October 14 about the fragility of global fuel supply. It noted oil stocks were about 509 million barrels below their late-February level and projected a global oil demand contraction of roughly 2.6 million barrels per day on average in 2026 compared with 2025. This anticipated decline reflects high prices and economic slowdowns; it does not imply that production fell by the same amount.
The shock is not limited to crude. According to the IEA, nearly 20% of global natural gas supply traversed Hormuz before the war. Disruptions to LNG deliveries and pressure on diesel raise energy and transport costs and, in certain sectors, production and fertilizer costs. The magnitude of the effects depends on the duration of outages and the ability of producers to reroute flows.
American military bill: what the figures cover
47.1 billion dollars: estimated American military spending and losses as of October 16, according to Pentagon data obtained by Reuters and the Associated Press.
This estimate includes about 29 billion for munitions, 11.9 billion for operations, and 6 billion for lost equipment, with rounding by category.
From 5 to 15 billion dollars: the range of damage to bases, according to the Wall Street Journal citing the Pentagon. These damages are not included in the 47.1 billion figure.
The damaged facilities are sometimes owned or shared with allied countries. Responsibility for reconstruction funding is therefore not yet settled; Washington is discussing possible contributions from partners.
The American bill and global repercussions
According to the Wall Street Journal, damages to American and allied military facilities could reach up to $15 billion by the end of assessments. The paper documents at least 119 buildings damaged on 13 bases during the first two weeks of the conflict, while operational costs and equipment losses continue to weigh on the U.S. budget.
Globally, a renewed surge in oil and freight prices could intensify inflationary pressures, raise energy imports costs and squeeze corporate margins. Oil-importing countries are particularly exposed, while exporters may benefit from higher prices without being immune to physical disruptions to their infrastructure.
Tunisia: an energy deficit already close to half the trade deficit
For Tunisia, the main transmission channel of this crisis is the cost of imported energy. According to the National Institute of Statistics (INS), the energy trade deficit stood at 10.480 billion dinars in the first nine months of 2026, up from 8.1064 billion during the same period in 2025, i.e., a 29.3% deterioration (TN calculation).
During the same period, the country’s total trade deficit reached 20.997 billion dinars, up from 16.727 billion a year earlier. Energy thus accounts for 49.9% of the overall trade deficit (TN calculation); Tunisia’s imports of energy products, measured in value, rose by 32% year over year, according to INS.
Tunisia: four benchmarks as of end-September 2026
10.480 billion dinars energy deficit ;
+29.3% year on year for this deficit (TN calculation) ;
49.9% of the total trade deficit tied to the energy balance (TN calculation) ;
+32% in energy imports by value over the first nine months.
A prolonged rise in oil prices and freight costs could deepen Tunisia’s import bill and energy financing needs. The actual impact on public spending, consumer prices and businesses depends on purchase volumes, the prices actually paid, the exchange rate, tariff policy and the structure of contracts. INS data cover January-September: they do not by themselves attribute the worsening of the deficit to late-October maritime incidents.
The evolution of tourism, air transport, logistics and the activity of European trading partners is another area of vigilance, without a Tunisian-specific quantified impact that can be established at this stage for this new round of tensions.
The upcoming discussions in Doha and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will thus be decisive. Diplomacy is trying to prevent a new assault, but the positions shown by Washington, Tehran and Jerusalem indicate that obstacles remain substantial. For energy-importing economies like Tunisia, the stakes go well beyond the military: they also concern prices, the energy bill, and the stability of trade.
