The Tunis Stock Exchange closed the third quarter of 2026 at 18,386.4 points, down 7.44% from the end of June. The figure is clear, but not the most telling. Behind the index, trading activity contracted by more than a third, as if the market had corrected in the absence of its usual crowd.
This contrast alters the reading of the quarter. A decline accompanied by rising volumes would signal an active rotation, with sellers pressed against convinced buyers. A decline accompanied by a drying up of transactions illustrates another position: a hesitant market, where price is formed on thin order books and where each order weighs more heavily than usual.
According to the Arab Financial Markets Quarterly Newsletter No. 126, published by the Arab Monetary Fund for the third quarter of 2026, Tunis ranks as the second-worst performance among the sixteen markets tracked, behind Doha (9.74%) and ahead of Manama (6.60%).
The Tunisian market capitalization stands at 15.53 billion dollars, i.e., 1.11 billion less than at the end of June. The value of transactions falls to 415.3 million dollars, compared to 660.8 million in the previous quarter, i.e., 37.15% lower.
A correction born from a peak
To judge this decline, one must look at where the index came from. It had gained 29.28% in the second quarter and peaked at 20,038.1 points in July. Over twelve months, it remains higher by about 48% than its level at the end of September 2025, at 12,404.3 points. The capitalization expressed in dollars has risen by about 41% over the same period, from 11.04 to 15.53 billion.
The quarter thus relinquished part of an exceptional ascent. Its pace, however, is instructive: July up 0.88%, August down 3.15%, September down 5.26%. Since the July peak, the loss reaches 8.2%. A correction that accelerates as the quarter ends resembles less a breath than a growing doubt. The Arab Monetary Fund notes, moreover, that in September, the cost of capital returned to the forefront of arbitrage on regional markets, with rate hikes of 25 basis points in several economies.
The hidden signal of volumes
