21 advancing, 21 declining, 21 unchanged. Of the 75 listed companies, the session of November 5 looks like a market holding its breath. Yet the Tunindex gains 0.15% and closes at 18,696.43 points, the Tunindex20 rises 0.16% to 8,198.35, and the capitalization reaches 45,974 million dinars.
A symmetry that hides a hierarchy
When an index rises without the majority of stocks following it, it’s because a few heavyweight weights are doing the work. The Tunindex remains largely dependent on the financial sector. The index of financial companies accounts for 66.82% of the total and that of banks 58.41%.
That day, financial services jumped 1.28%, banks gained 0.21%, while insurance fell 0.48% and the food sector declined 0.26%. The rise is therefore real but narrow: it rests on one sector, not on a broad upswing.
Foreigners ease, the free float absorbs
The breakdown of flows is the most telling. Foreign investors bought 14,775 dinars and sold 145,834 dinars. The net balance is modest in absolute value, but it points to disengagement as foreign participation stands at 17.72% of capitalization. In contrast, the “Free Float” category acted as a cushion: 68.69% of capital at purchase versus 60.81% at sale. Investment funds (UCVMs) themselves sold more (1.13 million dinars) than they bought (0.99 million).
A thin session, three stocks on display
The capital traded on the main market amounted to only 4.87 million dinars for 413,824 shares across 1,501 transactions. No block trades were negotiated, and the bond market and the off-market traded remained at zero. Sotetel (544,624 dinars and 213 trades), Amen Bank (454,135) and Poulina Group Holding (393,403) dominated the turnover.
Carthage Cement led in volume with 136,057 shares. In terms of price moves, Telnet Holding gains 5.48% to 12.130 dinars, ahead of BTE (ADP) at 4.34% and Sotemail at 4.26%. On the downside, SITS gives up 4.26%, Siphat 4.23% and Astrée 3.60%.
A concentrated market, far from its peak
This session reads better in hindsight. Since January, the Tunindex has risen 39.01%, and capitalization 32.62%. But the index remains about 13% below its annual high of 21,552.73 points, reached on July 17. Concentration remains strong: the five largest capitalizations, led by BIAT at 14.58%, account for 48.54% of the total. Banks alone represent 46.20% of capitalization.
The annual activity confirms this contrasted portrait. Cumulative capital amounts to 4.81 billion dinars, up 16.07%, and listed equity securities rise by 81.53%. But the bond segment falls by 32.68% and off-market trading collapses by 99.28%. Even on the listed market, volumes depend on bursts of activity: April accounts for 26.20% of the year’s traded capital, at 732.9 million dinars. November so far accounts for only 23.8 million.
What to watch
Three signals deserve investors’ attention. First, the ability of financials to continue driving the index without support from other sectors. Next, the evolution of non-resident behavior, whose selling weighs on a shallow market. Finally, the return, or not, of block trades, which have made the difference this year. A balanced session is not necessarily a neutral one: it often indicates that the next impulse will come from elsewhere.
