At first glance, the 2027 domestic borrowing program appears stable. The envelope reaches 19,845 million dinars, compared with 19,056 million in the initial 2026 Finance Law, i.e., an increase of 789 million, or 4.1%. Nothing spectacular. Yet it is in the composition of this envelope, rather than its amount, that the real shift in direction is at stake.
A shift in gravity rather than a rise
The Treasury is not asking for much more. It asks for something else, and from others. The central bank facilities would retreat from 11,000 to 9,800 million dinars, a decrease of 10.9%. The 52-week bills would fall from 2,500 to 1,400 million, a drop of 44%. Conversely, assimilable Treasury bonds would soar from 4,840 to 8,645 million dinars, a rise of 78.6%.
The result is a net rebalancing. The BTA would go from 25.4% to 43.6% of domestic borrowings, while the share of the Central Bank would slide from 57.7% to 49.4%. It would remain the primary source of financing, but would for the first time fall below half. Excluding the Central Bank, resources raised from the market would rise from 8,056 to 10,045 million dinars, up 24.7%.
The gross attracts, the net reassures
A gross figure rarely tells the whole story. The 8,645 million dinars of planned issuances would first have to offset five BTA maturities, totaling 3,043.01 million dinars. The repayments would thus absorb 35.2% of the issuances. The net contribution to the Treasury would amount to 5,601.99 million dinars.
Part of the spectacular rise in BTA is thus used to renew existing debt rather than to finance new expenditures. It is a classic mechanism, but it changes the reading of the effort required from the market. This measure, moreover, applies only to the principal. The coupons paid to holders constitute a separate charge, which does not appear in this calculation.
2026, or the lesson of budgets that were overspent
