In a world where capital is scarce and selective, North Africa displays a singular profile. It is a region that loses less than others, while remaining fragile. Foreign direct investment there rises by 15% in the first half of 2026, even as projects continue to erode.
This contrast is not unique to the region. Globally, FDI jumps by 37% to reach 1,082 billion dollars. Yet this upsurge rests on very large deals, megaprojects and financial flows, while greenfield project announcements fall by 15% in number and international project financing slips by 11%. Capital weighs more heavily, but it is spread across fewer projects.
These findings come from the Global Investment Trends Monitor No. 51, published in October 2026 by UNCTAD. For North Africa, the report records 13 billion dollars of FDI in the first half, versus 22 billion for the entirety of 2025 and 51 billion in 2024. The 15% increase is measured against the semi-annual average of 2025, which stands at about 11 billion.
A real rise, on a narrow base
The figure deserves to be placed in context. On a global total of 1,082 billion dollars, the subregion accounts for a little over 1% according to my calculation based on the published data.
It represents about a third of the 42 billion received by Africa as a whole, whose inflows rise by 19%. North Africa thus participates in the continental recovery without being its driver. Its performance is more a matter of stabilization after the sharp contraction observed between 2024 and 2025 than of a new expansion cycle.
The paradox of resilience
The interest of the analysis lies in the projects, which announce the flows of tomorrow. North African greenfield announcements fall by 8%, with 165 projects recorded in the first seven months of 2026. The rest of Africa falls by 25%, developing economies by 22% and developing Asia by 27%. West Asia collapses by 52%.
The pattern is the same for international project financing. North African deal structures decrease by 19%, i.e., 40 operations in the first half, while Africa declines by 33% and the rest of the continent by 44%.
The region is therefore not spared, but it absorbs the shock much better than its neighbours. Its proximity to Europe, its weight in energy, and the depth of certain markets probably explain part of this resilience, a reading that the report itself does not spell out.
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