On the 259th day of the war between Iran and the United States, military threats continue, but Washington and Tehran still appear to be seeking to avoid a resumption of large-scale fighting.
Before the United Nations Security Council, Iran promises an “immediate and decisive” response to any new American or Israeli attack.
Meanwhile, American Secretary of State Marco Rubio believes that the economic pressure exerted on Tehran makes a new major offensive unnecessary. China calls on both countries to return to the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, while a meeting between Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin is being prepared for next week.
This Saturday, November 14, 2026 marks 259 days since the start of the American-Israeli strikes on February 28. It also corresponds to 150 days since June 17, the date of the first announcements about the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, whose electronic signing was completed in the night of June 17–18. Despite this diplomatic framework, naval operations, the nuclear dossier, and mutual accusations continue to fuel the crisis.
Bahrain: Washington denies the destruction of an American radar
The latest confrontation originated from the Iranian city of Sirik, in Hormozgan province, near the eastern entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian media reported that a telecommunications facility had been targeted by an attack described as hostile. The Revolutionary Guards subsequently claimed an strike against an advanced warning radar in Bahrain, presenting the operation as a response.
The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) categorically contests this version. According to it, the Revolutionary Guards launched two attack drones toward Bahrain, but both aircraft were shot down by American forces. The command asserts that there were no casualties and no material damage, and it characterizes the Iranian claim of radar destruction as false.
No independent verification at this stage can confirm the destruction of a American installation. The details of any damage possibly incurred in Sirik have not been publicly established. Bahrain hosts the headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet, which gives the incident a particularly regional significance.
At the UN, Tehran promises an unhesitating response
During a Security Council meeting, Iran’s interim representative, Gholamhossein Darzi, warned that any new American or Israeli offensive would be followed by an immediate and determined response, aimed, in his terms, at the source of the attack, wherever it may lie.
The Iranian diplomat attributed the insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz to the strikes against his country and to the American naval blockade. He accuses Washington of undermining the civilian population’s access to food, medicines, and essential goods, and regards these measures as grave violations of international humanitarian law. These qualifications reflect Iran’s stated position; no judicial decision is here established.
Tehran says it wants to preserve its deterrent capacity and its right to legitimate defense. But its warnings come as several oil tankers have been reported damaged by explosions, and Iranian authorities speak of naval mines in zones they declare off-limits to navigation.
Rubio: economic pressure could replace fresh strikes
In Washington, the official discourse no longer limits itself to the threat of attacks. On Friday, November 13, before the Federalist Society, American Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the economic difficulties inflicted on Iran had become sufficiently severe to render unnecessary another large-scale military operation.
According to Rubio, Washington has significantly weakened the Islamic Republic. He described the blocking of Tehran’s path to acquiring a nuclear weapon as the main criterion for the success of American policy. The foreign minister nevertheless acknowledged that the conflict had also exacted a heavy price on the United States, notably through higher fuel prices and their impact on other sectors of the economy.
This stance echoes recent statements by Donald Trump, who asserts that the strictly military phase of the conflict is virtually over, while keeping open the possibility of new strikes. The American president now argues that an agreement with Tehran is no longer essential. He has also redirected his vice president, JD Vance, previously deeply involved in pursuing a compromise, toward domestic policy dossiers.
China calls for a return to the Islamabad Memorandum
At the Security Council, China voiced concern about the negotiation deadlock and the possibility of an extension of hostilities. Its representative urged the United States and Iran to show restraint, resume dialogue, and return to the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, negotiated with the support of Pakistan and Qatar.
Beijing opposes the militarization of the main sea routes and their use as instruments of political pressure. For China, resuming talks should lead to a more comprehensive agreement covering, in particular, nuclear issues, regional security, and freedom of navigation.
The memorandum signed in mid-June envisaged a halt to military operations, a negotiating calendar, and commitments regarding the lifting of the blockade and the movement through the Strait of Hormuz. Its implementation has remained deeply contested. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs had already called in September for the two sides to respect this text. This position was reaffirmed at the Security Council.
A Trump–Xi–Putin summit expected Thursday in China
A new diplomatic meeting is to take place Thursday, November 19, on the margins of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen, China. According to the Associated Press, the White House confirmed preparations for a trilateral meeting between Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin.
The American president intends to address the war with Iran and the issue of controlling the nuclear arsenals of the three powers. Discussions on strategic weapons among the United States, Russia, and China remain a separate dossier from inspections of the Iranian nuclear program. No agreement is announced at this stage.
The prospect of this meeting is significant in a context where China and Russia maintain close relations with Tehran, while pursuing their own priorities vis-à-vis Washington. The leaders may seek to reduce the risk of another confrontation, though the outcome of the exchanges cannot be prefigured.
Iranian nuclear: inspections remain blocked
The nuclear dossier remains one of the main obstacles to lasting détente. According to a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has indicated that discussions about restoring inspections cannot proceed in a context of military threats against its facilities.
Iran’s representation to the agency in Vienna reproaches the IAEA for not adequately considering the consequences of the strikes against nuclear sites and the risks to inspectors. It also challenges certain legal and technical bases of the report.
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, for his part, calls for the reinstatement of access to facilities so that the agency can verify the status of nuclear materials and the peaceful nature of the program. The absence of inspections at affected sites prevents providing all the expected assurances.
Iranian voices also talk of the potential withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). It is not an actual withdrawal notice. Such a decision, if adopted, would open a new legal and diplomatic crisis around Tehran’s commitments and the monitoring of its nuclear activities.
Israel: disagreements over a new offensive
Israeli media report tense discussions around the option of a military strike against Iran. According to Axios, outgoing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pushing Trump to resume operations, but the American president has so far resisted these requests. The Mossad director has traveled to Washington to discuss the dossier with American officials, according to the same outlet.
Meanwhile, party leader Gadi Eisenkot, tasked with forming a new government, would not consider an immediate strike against Iran as indispensable. Israeli accounts also indicate that the army would prefer, in case of a new operation, a coordinated action with the United States rather than an isolated intervention. These are assessments reported by the media, not publicly announced operational decisions.
The Revolutionary Guards also denied rumors circulating on social networks about explosions at military facilities in Isfahan, stating that no attacks had struck their centers in that province. These denials alone do not allow verifying all the information circulating on the ground.
Drone alert at a U.S. base in Great Britain
Wider than the Middle East, the concern grew on Friday evening as American forces ordered to take shelter at the British base of RAF Lakenheath, in Suffolk, after the detection of suspicious and unauthorized drone activity.
The U.S. Air Force confirmed that a security response was triggered. According to its statement, no service member, aircraft, or building was harmed. The alert was subsequently lifted. No public evidence allows attributing this episode to Iran.
Oil: Brent ends at $95.84 despite tensions
On the oil markets, price declines contrast with new military alerts. On Friday, November 13, Brent closed at $95.84 per barrel, a modest gain of 2 cents on the session. U.S. crude WTI finished at $88.56, down 18 cents. Over the week, both benchmarks fell by about 2.5%.
The previous week, declines reached 16% for Brent and 13% for WTI. According to Reuters, markets are now paying more attention to the prospects of a global supply surplus, the weakness of U.S. demand, and the partial resumption of Middle East exports. However, the easing of prices does not mean the end of risks around Hormuz.
The International Energy Agency expects the market to return to a surplus in the fourth quarter. But maritime incidents remain a concern: according to figures from the International Maritime Organization cited by the Associated Press, about 134 maritime incidents have been recorded in the Strait of Hormuz and the wider region up to November 11, resulting in 25 mariners’ deaths, as well as injuries and missing people. This tally covers a broader period and area than the most recent incidents.
Gas under $4, diesel above $6: the American bill
American motorists are beginning to benefit from the easing prices, but the consequences of the war remain evident. According to the AAA association, the national average price of regular gasoline stood at $3.98 per gallon on Tuesday, November 10, versus $4.56 earlier in the year. It thus fell below the $4 threshold for the first time since mid-summer.
Diesel remained much more expensive: around $6.16 per gallon on that same date, versus $6.53 at the end of September. This fuel directly weighs on road freight transportation, agriculture, certain projects, and, indirectly, household prices.
A CREA (Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air) study estimates $160 billion as the cumulative cost of gasoline and diesel borne by the United States since the crisis began, out of a global total of $468 billion. That corresponds to about $471 per American, according to this methodology.
Note that this is not the cost of the U.S. military budget. This estimate compares actual fuel expenditures to a reference period before the conflict; it depends on price, consumption, and scope assumptions. It nevertheless illustrates the economic weight of Hormuz disruptions, including for the world’s top oil producer.
What possible consequences for Tunisia?
Tunisia is exposed to changes in international energy prices through its energy purchases, its transport activities, and, more broadly, the costs of external trade. A Brent price lower than at the crisis peak can alleviate some pressures on imports, while a rise in maritime risk premia or diesel prices could raise logistics costs and several imported goods.
These mechanisms describe a potential economic exposure. They do not provide a numerical estimate of the direct impact of the developments of November 14 on the Tunisian economy without updated data on import contracts, volumes purchased, and actual prices paid.
For the moment, the confrontation between Washington and Tehran is partly moving from the battlefield to sanctions, the blockade, and diplomacy. For Beijing, the urgency is to restore the Islamabad framework. For markets as well as energy-importing countries, the essential question remains whether these contradictory signals will lead to a genuine de-escalation or to a new phase of uncertainty.
Also read on Tunisie Numérique: Iran–United States: Tehran claims a strike against an American radar in Bahrain, Trump rules out JD Vance on the Iranian dossier.
