As geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions redraw the map of global trade, Africa is seeking its path. The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) releases a blunt analysis of the continent’s trade and investment landscape. The diagnosis is familiar, but it takes on a new sharpness here.
The AfCFTA is presented as a major lever of transformation, provided that the structural obstacles that have long hindered the continent’s economic take-off are overcome. Africa’s promises are immense.
The continent hosts some of the world’s most dynamic economies, benefits from a rapidly expanding youth population, and holds coveted natural resources. Yet its place in global trade remains marginal: barely 3% of global exchanges. This starting observation fuels Afreximbank’s latest briefing note, published under the title “Africa’s Trade and Investment Landscape.”
This document, which constitutes the tenth volume of the “Trade and Development Finance Brief” series, presents an unflinching snapshot.
It shows that “the African trade landscape remains largely dominated by commodity exports, including agricultural products, oil, gas and minerals, while imports continue to be heavily oriented toward manufactured goods and machinery.”
A configuration that “renders many African economies particularly vulnerable to adverse shocks affecting terms of trade,” explains Afreximbank.
This vulnerability is not theoretical. It is reflected in concrete consequences: “fluctuations in global commodity prices, particularly the recent sharp rise in oil prices due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, have had substantial economic consequences for many African economies that are net oil importers,” the note emphasizes. Resource-rich countries, such as Nigeria and Angola, are weathering the storm, but others suffer the full impact of volatility.
This finding is not new. But it takes on a particular dimension in a global context marked by rising geopolitical tensions, increasing economic fragmentation, and persistent disruptions of supply chains, fed by the trade and technology wars between the United States and China. Africa, which accounts for only 3% of world trade, experiences shocks it does not contribute to creating.
