In its 2026 Country Risk Atlas, Allianz Trade offers a nuanced panorama of country risk, highlighting an overall improvement in short-term risk in 2025, but persistent vulnerabilities in the medium term. In Africa, several economies display contrasting dynamics, between dependence on commodities, social tensions and diversification efforts.
Allianz Trade ranks Morocco at the top among African economies least risky for businesses in 2026, ahead of South Africa, Egypt and Nigeria, in its Country Risk Atlas evaluating 83 countries.
The Ivory Coast and Senegal show attractive ratings, while Algeria, Ghana and Tunisia present higher risks. These assessments combine 35 economic, political and ESG indicators to anticipate payment delays.
With a B1 rating (low risk), Morocco benefits from inflation controlled at 1%, projected public debt at 65% of GDP in 2027, and a role as an industrial hub exporting 500,000 vehicles annually to Europe. Growth expected at 4% and structural reforms strengthen its resilience to global shocks. This position attracts international investors seeking stability.
South Africa (B3) and Egypt are advancing thanks to IMF support and diversification, with Egypt aiming for inflation at 10.5% and budget reforms. Ivory Coast (B2) benefits from a 6.5% growth rate and manageable debt, while Nigeria capitalizes on the Dangote refinery and its 232 million population. Senegal and Kenya innovate with debt swaps and green financing.
In 2026, 36 countries see their ratings improved overall, including several African ones, reflecting adaptation to trade tensions and polycrises. Morocco will maintain its premium, boosting intra-African trade through AfCFTA, while Ivory Coast and Egypt accelerate their industrialization. Allianz Trade foresees increased resilience, with geographic selectivity favoring investment flows and proactive risk management to secure cash flows.
