Tunisia is counting on an acceleration of its economic growth in 2027, with an expected rate of 3.1 %, compared with 2.7 % in 2026, according to projections of the economic budget project for 2027, submitted by the government to the Assembly of the Representatives of the People (ARP) and the National Council of Regions and Districts.
This growth outlook rests notably on an expected rise in investment, an improvement in export performance and a slowdown in import growth. The government also foresees an increase in per capita income and a slight improvement in social indicators.
The government forecasts show a 0.4 percentage point rise in the growth rate between 2026 and 2027, reflecting the objective of progressively strengthening economic activity.
This outlook comes after a downward revision of 2026 estimates. Initially expected at 3.3 %, the growth of the Tunisian economy was brought down to 2.7 % for the entire year.
According to the government, this revision is explained by the persistence of several conjunctural constraints, despite the continued gradual recovery of economic activity.
The limited performances of certain sectors, notably phosphate and energy, are among the main factors cited. Added to these difficulties are pressures linked to climate change and the evolution of the international economic situation.
Investment, one of the main growth levers
To support the expected acceleration of the economy in 2027, the government is counting on an improvement in the investment effort.
The investment rate should thus reach 16.4% of GDP in 2027, up from 15.5% estimated for 2026, representing a 0.9 percentage point increase.
Foreign direct investments (FDI) should also rise, from 4 billion dinars in 2026 to 4.8 billion dinars in 2027, which represents a projected 20% increase.
This evolution is one of the elements on which the growth prospects presented in the economic budget project rest.
Foreign trade should also contribute to the envisaged dynamic for the coming year. According to official projections, exports of goods and services should grow by 8% in 2027, compared with 7.5% in 2026. In parallel, import growth should slow to 7.9%, after a rate estimated at 10% in 2026.
The economic budget project also foresees a reduction of the trade deficit, which would fall from 3.9% of GDP in 2026 to 3.7% in 2027.
These projections reflect the government’s expectations regarding the evolution of external trade, even if their realization will depend in particular on the international conjuncture and the performances of export sectors.
An increase in per capita income accompanying growth
The envisaged acceleration would be accompanied by an increase in per capita income, which should rise from 15,605.7 dinars in 2026 to 16,735.9 dinars in 2027.
This evolution corresponds to a nominal increase of around 7.2% over one year, according to a calculation by Tunisia Numérique from the project data.
This rise should not be interpreted as an equivalent improvement in purchasing power, since it does not take into account the evolution of prices.
Socially, the government expects the unemployment rate to fall to 14.5% in 2027, from 14.9% in 2026.
Youth unemployment aged 15 to 24 should decrease from 35.4% to 35%, while that of higher education graduates would fall from 26.6% to 25%.
Meanwhile, the inflation rate should slightly decrease, from 5.3% in 2026 to 5.2% in 2027.
The challenge of more sustained and more resilient growth
Beyond the 3.1% growth objective for 2027, the government emphasizes the need to strengthen the capacity of the Tunisian economy to withstand shocks and to adapt to changes in its environment.
In this perspective, the economic budget project focuses on accelerating structural reforms favorable to growth and investment, improving the coherence of public policies and developing mechanisms that enable better anticipation of economic risks.
The aim, according to the document, is to establish a more dynamic, more balanced and more resilient growth pace in the face of crises.
These orientations are part of the framework of the Development Plan 2026-2030, in complementarity with the Finance Bill and the State Budget for 2027.
The achievement of the growth target of 3.1% nevertheless remains contingent on the evolution of investment, the recovery of productive sectors and national and international economic conditions.
(Source:TAP)
