The AfDB warns that conflicts in the Middle East are placing pressure on Africa’s growth.
The African Development Bank (AfDB) notes that conflicts in the Middle East are adding pressure on many African economies, while energy prices are rising, increasing risks to growth and macroeconomic stability.
The AfDB projects that economic growth in several African countries, as well as across the continent, will slow in 2026 due to the impact of the Middle East conflicts, amid higher energy prices and growing pressure on public budgets.
According to a report citing the Gulf-based economic analysis site AGBI on the AfDB’s latest 2026 outlook, Egypt’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to drop to 4% in 2026, down from 4.4% in 2025.
Nevertheless, growth in this North African country is expected to rebound to 4.3% by 2027.
According to the AfDB, the growth slowdown is mainly due to austerity measures implemented by the Egyptian government to mitigate the impact of the regional conflict on public finances and inflation.
Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly stated in March that the country’s gas import bill had risen by about $1 billion per month since the conflict began in late February.
Rising energy costs exert additional pressure on the balance of payments and Cairo’s budget.
For Morocco, the AfDB forecasts economic growth slowing from 4.7% in 2025 to 4.2% in 2026, before rising to 4.3% in 2027.
The organization estimates that higher energy prices resulting from the regional conflict will continue to affect Morocco’s production and consumption.
Around the continent, the AfDB expects Africa’s real GDP growth to slow slightly to 4.2% in 2026 before rebounding to 4.4% in 2027.
According to the AfDB, the magnitude of the conflict’s impact on economic growth and macroeconomic stability will largely depend on the duration of disruptions to global supply chains, as well as their effects on energy and fertilizer prices.
Current forecasts assume that the conflict will last only two to three months.
