According to its latest analysis published on Thursday, September 17, Fitch Ratings maintains Morocco’s sovereign rating at “BB+”, with a stable outlook.
This rating reflects, according to the agency, solid macroeconomic policies, adequate external liquidity reserves, and strong support from official creditors.
However, these strengths are offset by development and governance indicators that lag behind those of some comparable countries, a high level of public debt, and a economy with strong exposure to climate-related risks.
On the budget front, Fitch expects a temporary deterioration of public finances in 2026, with a budget deficit reaching 4% of GDP, versus 3.5% in 2025.
This rise would be principally linked to additional spending triggered by the Hormuz Strait crisis and higher energy prices. The agency cites notably the increase in subsidies for butane gas, the continuation of support for carriers, and higher transfers to ONEE.
These expenditures should more than offset the growth in tax revenues, supported notably by tax reforms, improved compliance with tax obligations, and better efficiency of revenue collection.
Fitch nonetheless anticipates an improvement from 2027, with an average budget deficit of 3.4% of GDP over 2027-2028, as energy-shock-related expenditures abate.
The agency expects that Treasury debt will remain almost stable, around 67% of GDP in 2028, the same level as in 2025. This ratio, however, remains well above the projected median for BB-rated countries, estimated at 51%.
Fitch nevertheless notes the relatively favorable structure of Moroccan debt. Refinancing and exchange-rate risks are mitigated in particular by long maturities, a high share of fixed-rate borrowings, and substantial use of concessional external financing.
The 2030 World Cup, a risk for public finances?
This is one of the main points of vigilance raised by Fitch. Morocco has embarked on an important infrastructure program in preparation for the 2030 World Cup. According to the agency, a large portion of these investments should be borne by state-owned enterprises, public-private partnerships, and other entities located outside the direct budgetary perimeter of the State.
This configuration helps limit, in the short term, the apparent impact of these investments on the budget accounts. It is nonetheless not without risks.
Fitch thus believes that public finances could be exposed in case of cost overruns or additional needs that could, in the long run, end up borne by the State.
Investment expenditures directly recorded in the budget should, for their part, remain high, with an average of 7.5% of GDP over 2027-2028, notably in connection with the World Cup preparations.
On the external front, Fitch projects a widening current account deficit to 3.8% of GDP in 2026, up from 2.5% in 2025.
The rise in the energy bill, following the Hormuz Strait crisis, as well as weaker European demand, are expected to weigh on the external accounts. These effects would be partially offset by the growth of phosphate exports and tourism revenues.
The current account deficit should then return to an average of 2.6% of GDP in 2027-2028, thanks notably to the normalization of energy prices and to an improvement in the external environment.
In its note, Fitch did, however, highlight a risk linked to social tensions and calls for public spending priorities. An increased demand for social spending could, according to the agency, push budget outlays beyond its baseline scenario.
