According to Goldman Sachs, global stocks of crude oil and petroleum products are decreasing at a record pace this month, with the ongoing conflict in the Middle East constraining supply.
In a recent report, Goldman Sachs analysts noted that physical stocks have fallen by 8.7 million barrels per day, a record, since early May. This figure represents nearly twice the rate of decline observed on average since the start of the conflict.
Analysts say that physical markets are continuing to tighten, as oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz remain very weak, at only 5% of normal levels.
It is a strategic waterway currently subjected to a dual blockade by Iran and the United States.
Nevertheless, researchers say that even though global stocks have fallen on average by 4.6 million barrels per day since March, they remain comparable to those of the same period last year thanks to a “substantial reserve” accumulated during the nine months preceding the outbreak of the war.
The conflict has disrupted the global energy market, causing an unprecedented supply shortage. This has led to the rapid drawdown of reserves prior to the crisis. Moreover, governments have coordinated the release of their strategic reserves in order to curb price increases.
Last week, Fatih Birol, the Director-General of the International Energy Agency (IEA), warned that commercial petroleum stocks were diminishing at an increasingly rapid pace.
The agency also estimates that the market will continue to experience “severe supply shortages” through October, even if the conflict ends soon.
In the United States, according to official figures, national crude oil stocks, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell by 17.8 million barrels last week, a record, as record export activity began to erode the reserves.
