In 2025, the Tunisian subsoil delivered 2.37 million tonnes of oil equivalent, i.e., 14% less than in 2024. This figure resembles a stall in field discoveries. Yet it reveals something else: the situation of a sector where administrative time runs faster than the oil.
To measure the scale of the retreat, one must trace the thread back. Compared with 2015, production has fallen by 49%. Compared with 2010, it has fallen by 64%. In fifteen years, Tunisia has seen nearly two-thirds of what it used to extract melt away, without any catastrophe to explain it. It is a slow, steady, almost silent erosion.
That is what The Energy Annals 2025 document, published in September 2026 by the Tunisian Association of Oil and Gas (ATPG), whose first part outlines the assessment of exploration and hydrocarbon production, show. Their reading goes beyond a mere inventory. It suggests that the production curve is primarily the reflection of a calendar of decisions.
A country that has ceased drilling to find
The most telling figure of the year is a zero. No new exploration drilling was undertaken in 2025. Only four development wells were drilled, that is to say wells intended to extract what is already known. In other words, Tunisia manages its capital without renewing it.
The portfolio of mining titles confirms this thinning. From 15 valid permits at the end of 2024, it dropped to 12 at the end of 2025, including eleven exploration permits and one prospecting permit, the latter being Chebba Marine. Three permits were relinquished, three were renewed, and none were awarded. Two permits, Jelma and Chebba Marine, are kept for force majeure, meaning their work is suspended by external circumstances.
When waiting becomes institutional
The ATPG report highlights a grey area rarely discussed, namely suspended dossiers. The Mahdia and Chaal permits have awaited renewal since 2022 and 2021. Three permits expired in 2025: Mahdia on January 19, Borj El Khadra on July 7 and Zarrat on August 11.
A concession stemming from Borj El Khadra has been awaiting allocation since 2023. Three other concessions, Ashtart, Rhemoura and Cercina, are awaiting approval of their particular agreement and its annexes.
For an operator, every year of uncertainty is capital immobilized and a drilling budget deferred. The wait is not neutral, but it functions as an invisible tax on oil investment.
A living portfolio of concessions, but aging
