Investment constitutes, in any macroeconomic framework, the main growth multiplier and the bedrock of productive transformation.
In Tunisia, this theoretical premise clashes with a worrying statistical reality. After a peak exceeding 20% of GDP in the early 2010s, the investment rate began a downward trajectory, falling below the critical 11% threshold in 2020, in the wake of successive political shocks and the global health crisis.
Since then, the rebound has remained hesitant. The latest available estimates place aggregate investment at around 13% to 15% of GDP between 2022 and 2024, a level markedly lower than the standards of comparable emerging economies, where this ratio often exceeds 25%.
This deceleration is not cyclical. It signals a deeper rupture in the expectations of economic agents, where the country risk premium tends to neutralize the incentives to invest.
Growth and Investment
Empirical analysis confirms a strong bidirectional relationship between growth and investment. In Tunisia, an acceleration of 1 percentage point in real growth typically translates into a substantial increase in the investment effort, through improved profitability prospects and expected cash flows.
