The kerosene crisis has shaken Europe since the strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure in late February 2026, with the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz blocking almost 50% of European aviation fuel supplies.
The prices rose to $1,700 per ton in late March, while inventories barely cover 90 days of normal consumption. This situation fuels fears of summer rationing as demand surges with the holidays.
Geopolitical origins of the shortage
Tensions in the Middle East have caused a global shortfall of 11 million barrels per day, exacerbating European dependence on imports, estimated at 30% of needs in 2025.
Europe’s kerosene imports fell 4.2% in March, to 1.064 million tonnes, forcing costly replenishments via the North Sea or Africa. The International Energy Agency released 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, including 172 million by the United States, to ease the urgency.
Official responses in Brussels
EU Energy Ministers met urgently on March 31, under Cyprus’s rotating presidency, to discuss supply security. The Commissioner Dan Jørgensen, European Commissioner for Energy, called for reducing oil consumption in transport, postponing refinery maintenance, and preserving jet fuel and diesel stocks. The European Commission stresses there is no immediate risk to supply, while warning about the sustained rise in prices linked to the conflict.
Cancelations and fare increases by airlines
SAS canceled 1,000 flights in April, Volotea cut connections to Corsica, and Air France suspended flights to Cuba until mid-June due to insufficient fuel. Airfares are rising by 20 to 40% this summer, with fuel surcharges climbing to 50 euros round-trip in economy on some routes. Ryanair and easyJet are faring better thanks to partial hedging, at 80% and 84% for the first semester, avoiding large-scale cuts for now.
A 20% shortfall in jet fuel threatens Europe by summer if tensions persist, according to the IEA, making long-haul flights particularly vulnerable. Alternatives such as night trains or ferries are gaining appeal, with Paris-Corsica journeys priced at 95-150 euros via TGV and ferry. Travelers await the effects of the release of reserves and European measures to gauge the scale of summer disruptions.
