The world’s six largest oil and gas companies – BP, Chevron, Eni, ExxonMobil, Shell, and TotalEnergies – could realize a combined net profit of around $45 billion in the second quarter of 2026, nearly double the previous forecasts.
The world’s largest oil and gas companies are about to enter a new cycle of massive profits, with oil prices surging due to geopolitical tensions, notably the Middle East conflict, and energy fluctuations linked to the extreme heat waves of the summer of 2026.
A world dependent on fossil fuels
According to Oxfam’s forecasts, the six major global oil and gas companies – BP, Chevron, Eni, ExxonMobil, Shell and TotalEnergies – could realize a combined net profit of around $45 billion in the second quarter of 2026, nearly double the $23 billion forecast just three months earlier.
If this trend continues, the six companies’ cumulative profits for the full year 2026 could reach $147 billion, far surpassing the total profits earned between the second quarter of 2024 and the end of 2025. This is seen as a resurgence of the “oil rent” in a world still heavily dependent on fossil fuels.
The main reason for the sharp rise in international oil prices, following tensions in the Middle East, is the significant contribution of oil and gas companies to their profits. This region remains crucial for global energy supply; consequently, any disruption to this supply has a direct impact on oil prices.
Outlook and alternatives
However, the rise in oil prices does not immediately translate into higher profits. Initially, oil and gas companies often bear the consequences of price hedging contracts, higher operating costs, and difficulties in adjusting production. Substantial profits typically appear later, when oil sale contracts are actually concluded at higher prices.
The strong rebound of oil and gas companies rekindles the debate in Europe on taxing extraordinary profits generated by the energy crisis.
In recent years, the European Union (EU) has consistently promoted the green transition, reducing dependence on fossil fuels and increasing investments in renewable energy. However, the energy crisis resulting from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict has forced many governments to maintain support for consumers and businesses through energy subsidies.
Oxfam estimates that a global tax on profits of oil, gas, and coal companies could generate around $400 billion in the first year. According to the organization, this revenue would be sufficient to cover the annual funding needs of climate change adaptation programs in low- and middle-income countries.
Proposals to tax energy profits are also beginning to attract interest in Europe. In April 2026, the economy and finance ministers of Italy, Germany, Spain, Portugal and Austria called for examining a new mechanism to tax extraordinary profits of energy companies.
