In an international environment characterized by an intensification of geopolitical shocks, the Gulf crisis cannot be viewed for Tunisia as an isolated regional event.
It fits into a broader dynamic of fragmentation of the world economy, where geopolitical tensions quickly translate into reallocation of financial flows, energy price volatility, and adjustments to implicit sovereign risk premia.
For an economy like Tunisia, structurally integrated into international trade and financial flows but still insufficiently diversified in its sources of foreign exchange, this configuration yields a negative leverage effect.
Exposure is not direct, but systemic, transmitted through a series of nested macroeconomic channels that simultaneously affect the current account, potential growth, and monetary stability.
A flow-driven economy exposed to re-pricings
The Tunisian economic model rests on a limited number of currency generators: tourism, diaspora remittances, manufacturing exports, and services revenues. This structure concentrates a significant portion of macroeconomic risk on variables sensitive to international conditions and to the expectations of global agents.
