In nine months, imports of petroleum products have fallen by 14%. Behind this figure lies a quiet reshaping of the map of suppliers.
Sometimes it only takes a drone strike on a refinery, thousands of kilometers away, for filling up to feel a little less certain in Tunis or Sfax. In 2026, Tunisia experiences it. Its main fuel supplier saw its own plants struck, then cut off its export taps. A country that consumes more than it refines then has only one option: to seek elsewhere, and fast.
This fragility is not of a cyclical nature. Tunisia depends on imports to cover its domestic consumption of fuels, especially diesel and gasoline. Its only refinery, the STIR plant, covers only about 30% of these needs. The rest arrives by ship, at the mercy of prices, alliances and crises of others.
According to data from the Energy Research Unit, based in Washington, Tunisia has imported by sea on average 67,000 barrels of petroleum products per day between January and late September 2026. A year earlier, over the same period, it received 78,000. The decline therefore amounts to 14% year-on-year. It even intensified in the third quarter, where the average fell to 62,000 barrels per day versus 76,000 a year earlier, a drop of 18%.
A thermometer that fluctuates from month to month
These averages smooth a reality that is much more jagged. Imports fluctuated from 55,000 barrels per day in January to 81,000 in May, then fell back to 55,000 in July. Between the low point and the high point, the gap exceeds 47%. For a country that must forecast its stocks, such volatility reminds that supply resembles more a series of bets than a steady flow.
September, however, marks a clear rebound. With 73,000 barrels per day, imports rise by 24% compared with the 59,000 in August, and it is the second consecutive month of increase. This uptick remains 6.4% below the level of September 2025, which stood at 78,000 barrels. Tunisia is climbing back, but has not yet regained its previous pace.
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