The relief is real, but it does not benefit everyone. In the third quarter of 2026, Tunisian banks breathed a sigh of relief. Their average liquidity needs returned to 9,896 million dinars, versus 10,845 million a quarter earlier, and the money market even posted an average surplus of 47 million, after a deficit of 116 million in the second quarter.
Reading this easing as mere good news would, however, be a mistake. It tells a story of seasons, currencies, and public debt, and it is this story that the executive must decipher before calibrating its treasury and financing requests.
According to the Central Bank of Tunisia’s Periodical Conjuncture No. 153, published in October 2026, the drop of 949 million dinars in banks’ needs comes first from the retreat of the restrictive balance of autonomous factors, down to 9,529 million from 10,496 million. The required reserves, for their part, rose by 17 million, bringing the average need in central money to 367 million.
The cash came back with the end of summer
The main driver of this easing is almost household-driven. About 2,368 million dinars worth of banknotes flowed back into current accounts, of which 62% occurred in September alone, in line with the usual retreat that follows the summer season and religious holidays. The stock of banknotes in circulation had peaked at 30,220 million on August 28 before falling to 29,692 million by the end of September.
In addition, 641 million dinars were injected by net sales of currencies against dinars between the banks and the Central Bank. In other words, a large part of the system’s oxygen is seasonal, hence reversible.
The State, the main liquidity taker
What cash frees on one side, the Treasury takes back on the other. The issues of assimilable Treasury bonds reached 2,045 million dinars in the quarter, up from 1,336 million previously, exerting a restrictive effect on liquidity. Over nine months, net claims on the central administration rose by 7,098 million to reach 71,925 million. Facilities granted to the State for budget support jumped by 6,300 million, compared with 4,050 million a year earlier.
Against this figure, claims on the economy rose by 5,543 million, i.e., an increase of 4.5%, a real acceleration compared with 2.3% last year. But the distribution matters. Credit to services rose by 2,961 million, to industry by 555 million, to agriculture and fishing by only 32 million, and to individuals by 584 million. Money indeed circulates, but it does not flow to all sectors with the same generosity.
The Central Bank loosens its grip
