After a period of rising prices, Tunisia is experiencing a clear slowdown in inflation, driven by a more favorable economic context and by the lagged effects of monetary and fiscal policy.
The recent months mark a turning point in the inflation cycle that had affected the national economy over a relatively extended period. The observed decline in the consumer price index is notably pronounced, according to the latest figures from the National Institute of Statistics (INS), and clearly reflects the conjunction of external and internal factors, whose combined effects have allowed a gradual rebalancing of prices.
Stability factors
At the international level, the fall in commodity prices, especially energy products and foodstuffs, has played a significant moderating role. It is noteworthy in particular that global prices for basic commodities and energy, in continued declines, have helped ease production costs.
On the domestic market, prices of volatile-price food products – long the engine of inflation – have recorded a slowdown in the rate of price increases after spectacular rises. This decline is reflected in a negative contribution to overall inflation. Improvements in weather conditions have also favored the recovery of certain agricultural productions, which has helped ease seasonal pressures on markets.
The decline in inflation is also attributable to the lagged effects of monetary easing aimed at containing inflationary pressures. The gradual loosening of the policy rate has limited credit dynamics and encouraged price stabilization in the medium term.
Maintain the slowdown momentum
In this context, the INS announced that inflation in Tunisia stood at 4.8% in January 2026, marking a slight improvement compared with 4.9% recorded the previous month. This modest evolution reflects a trend of slowing prices that continues from 2025, a year in which the annual rate had fallen to 5.3% after reaching 7% in 2024.
Nevertheless, the food sector remains the main source of tension with an annual rise of 5.9%. Fresh fruits rose by 17.8%, lamb by 16.1%, while beef and fish also show increases above 10%.
In this picture, a note of hope nevertheless appears. Edible oils recorded a drop of 12%, helping to mitigate the impact of increases on other foods. This significant decline offers some relief to consumers.
Beyond food, other sectors show mixed developments. Clothing and footwear rose by 9.1% over the year. The catering and hospitality services, after recording significant increases in 2025, show signs of moderation, slowing their pace of growth in recent months.
The Tunisian authorities express their willingness to maintain this slowdown dynamic in 2026. The government targets inflation around 5.3% for the entire year, betting on support for domestic production and improved distribution channels. The digitization of tracking systems is among the tools envisioned to better control price developments.
