Several American embassies in the Middle East have urged their nationals to strengthen vigilance amid the risk of attacks attributed to Iran or its regional allies.
This Monday, October 19, 2026, warnings are mounting as the Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov is due in Tehran. In the United States, rising fuel prices and unfavorable polls for President Donald Trump lend this crisis an increasing economic and political dimension.
Key figures to note
4.33 dollars: average price of a gallon of regular gasoline in the United States in mid-October.
71%: share of Americans considering gasoline unaffordable, according to the latest ABC/Post/Ipsos poll.
33%: Donald Trump’s approval rating in this poll.
7 days: timeframe discussed in the Iranian proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, subject to conditions.
Security alerts targeting Americans in several countries
The U.S. embassy in the United Arab Emirates, like other diplomatic missions in the region, warns its nationals of an unstable security environment that could translate into flight cancellations, airspace closures and travel disruptions.
The statement mentions attacks by the Houthis, Iran’s regional allies in Yemen, against civilian airports and critical infrastructure in Saudi Arabia.
The warnings also indicate that U.S. interests abroad, including businesses and institutions associated with American nationals, could be targeted.
This is a threat assessment by U.S. authorities, not a confirmation that a specific operation is imminent. Travelers are advised to monitor airline information and to plan backup arrangements.
Tehran promises a stronger retaliation, Israel says it can act alone
The Iranian General Staff warned Washington and Israel that a new attack could trigger a retaliation harsher than previous ones. The adviser to the commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Reza Naqdi, also said that Iran would mobilize its resources against any new offensive and threatened adversaries’ infrastructure with severe consequences.
On the Israeli side, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on October 18 presented a security doctrine that places greater emphasis on prevention and preemptive strikes. He also stated that Israel must maintain the capacity to act against Iran without American operational support. His declared objectives include eliminating the nuclear threat and pursuing regime change in Tehran.
Donald Trump, for his part, voiced support for Netanyahu ahead of Israel’s elections on October 27. He mentioned the scenario in which Washington would have to pursue the confrontation with Iran alone if the Israeli leader did not remain in power.
Lavrov in Tehran: Moscow seeks a diplomatic exit
Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov is due to meet on Monday with Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian and his counterpart Abbas Araghchi. The Russian Foreign Ministry announced discussions focused on the Gulf situation, the regional crisis, and Moscow-Tehran cooperation.
This visit comes at a juncture where negotiations remain open, with no agreement on central questions.
Russia’s and Iran’s positions remain close on the need for a diplomatic solution, but the planned talks do not by themselves constitute mediation accepted by Washington.
Hormuz: a seven-day reopening proposal still on the table
Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday, October 18, that Iran’s offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days remained valid. Tehran conditions include ending the American blockade of its ports, lifting sanctions on its oil exports, and stopping regional hostilities.
Iranian officials said they were studying the American response. The main disagreement centers on the nuclear dossier timetable: Washington seeks concessions on uranium enrichment from the outset, while Tehran wants to negotiate navigation and maritime security first. The reopening of the strait is therefore not assured.
Before the war, the crossing accounted for about one-fifth of global trade in oil and liquefied natural gas. Its disruption helps explain part of energy markets’ nervousness, compounded by other international tensions.
Fuels and daily life: the bill is rising in the United States
The war has become a concrete issue for American households. The American Automobile Association (AAA) reported on October 15 an average price of around $4.33 per gallon of regular gasoline, more than a dollar higher than a year earlier.
A gallon cost $2.98 before the outbreak of the conflict, an increase of about 45% by October 16. Diesel reached $6.33 per gallon, up from $3.76 before the war, roughly a 68% rise.
The consequences also affect travel and goods: U.S. airfares rose about 22% year-over-year in September. Prices charged for certain road and maritime freight services were also higher, while not all consumer products saw the same increases. Nearly $2,000 per household: what the estimate measures.
Economist Mark Zandi, of Moody’s Analytics, estimates nearly $2,000 as the cumulative economic cost of the conflict for the average American household, including about $1,100 tied to energy, $540 to interest rates and $360 to distributed military costs.
This is an economic model cited by the Associated Press, not an amount actually paid by every family. The figures cover direct and indirect components and should not be read as a uniform rise in consumer spending.
Midterm period: 33% approval for Trump and 65% opposed to war
According to an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll published on October 18, conducted from October 9 to 13 among 2,545 American adults, 33% approve of President Trump’s action and 66% disapprove.
Regarding Iran specifically, 27% approve of its handling of the dossier and 70% disapprove; 65% believe the United States was wrong to resort to military force against Iran.
Cost of living sits at the center of this poll: 71% of respondents say gasoline is unaffordable, versus 28% in February; 60% share the same view for groceries and 65% for health care. Additionally, 72% believe the country is on the wrong track.
As the midterm elections on November 3 approach, the poll gives Democrats 52% of likely-voter support vs 44% for Republicans among likely voters. Among registered voters, the gap is 50% to 42%.
These results reflect opinion at the date of the survey, not the election outcome in the various districts. They nonetheless reveal the combined weight of war, fuel costs, and purchasing power on American concerns.
Macron singled out by the head of the Iranian diplomacy
In a message posted on X on October 19, Abbas Araghchi also took aim at French President Emmanuel Macron, accusing him of having condoned the violence suffered by Iranians and of contributing to the escalation.
The Iranian minister tied this criticism to social unrest in France. These are political accusations voiced by Tehran, which do not by themselves prove the intentions attributed to the French president.
What risks for Gulf countries and Tunisia?
The American alerts remind that the crisis now extends beyond military operations: traveler safety, airport operations, business activity, energy supplies, and maritime transport.
For Tunisia, a net energy importer, the evolution of Brent, freight rates, and the dollar is a parameter to monitor within the 2027 budget framework.
The immediate issue remains the divergence between, on one hand, reciprocal military threats and, on the other, conditional de-escalation proposals.
Lavrov’s visit and the American response to Iran’s plan on Hormuz will be two important steps to gauge the crisis’s direction.
