The latest ISTAT figures reveal a reality Italy can no longer ignore: without migratory input, its population declined in 2025.
This finding does not silence the debate on border control, but it reminds us that an aging country needs legal, organized and better-integrated immigration.
An almost-stable Italy, but only thanks to the migratory balance
Italy is not yet facing a drastic demographic downturn. But it is dangerously approaching one.
According to ISTAT demographic data, the resident population in Italy stood at about 58.943 million people as of January 1, 2026, a near-stability compared with the previous year. The total decline was only 636 inhabitants. At first glance, the country therefore seems to have avoided a setback. But behind this apparent stability lies a deep imbalance.
In 2025, Italy recorded only 355,000 births, compared to 652,000 deaths. The natural balance is therefore negative by about 296,000 people. In other words, deaths far exceed births.
If the population hardly declined, it is because the international migratory balance offset this retreat. Italy recorded about 440,000 arrivals from abroad and 144,000 departures, i.e., a positive migratory balance of about 296,000 people.
The conclusion is clear: in 2025, immigration was not only a political issue. It was the factor that allowed Italy to avoid a net decline in its population.
The real Italian problem: births are collapsing
The most worrying figure is not only the total population. It is the births.
With 355,000 births in 2025, Italy hits a new historic low since the unification of the country in 1861. In 2008, the country still counted around 576,000 births. In seventeen years, the drop is thus about 38%. Few figures capture so clearly the magnitude of the Italian “demographic decline.”
The fertility rate has fallen to 1.14 children per woman, one of the lowest in Europe. At the same time, life expectancy remains high: 81.7 years for men and 85.7 years for women.
The result is mechanical: fewer children, more elderly people, a working-age population under pressure, greater needs in health, care, social services, agriculture, industry and tourism.
Italy not only lacks babies. It is gradually running short of workers.
Aging: the shock coming by 2050
Italian aging is not a distant hypothesis. It is already visible.
According to ISTAT data, the average age of the Italian population is around 46.8 years. More than 24% of Italians are already 65 or older. ISTAT’s demographic projections indicate that the population could fall from about 58.9 million today to 54.7 million by 2050.
The age structure will also transform. The share of those over 65 could reach 34.6% in 2050. The ratio of workers to non-workers is expected to deteriorate sharply: Italy would gradually move from a still sustainable balance to a situation where each worker must shoulder a much heavier social burden.
The challenge is therefore not only demographic. It is economic, fiscal, social and territorial. Who will work in the fields? Who will take care of the elderly? Who will run hotels, restaurants, construction sites, factories, ports and services?
The answer cannot come solely from immigration. But without immigration, the equation becomes even more difficult.
Irregular immigration and legal immigration: two realities to distinguish
The Italian debate is often boiled down to a simple yes-or-no on immigration. Yet the numbers demand a more nuanced reading.
The government of Giorgia Meloni speaks firmly about irregular immigration, clandestine crossings, smuggling networks and abuses in certain procedures. This stance addresses a genuine concern: no state can accept migratory flows being entirely organized by illegal or criminal networks.
But at the same time, Italy is expanding legal entry routes for foreign workers. The Decreto Flussi 2026-2028 foresees 497,550 entries of non-European workers over three years: 164,850 in 2026, 165,850 in 2027 and 166,850 in 2028. Of this total, 267,000 visas are reserved for seasonal workers, notably in agriculture and tourism, while 230,550 concern non-seasonal and independent jobs.
This is not necessarily a contradiction. It is rather a sign of demographic and economic realism: controlling irregular immigration on one side, organizing legal labor immigration on the other.
The central question is therefore not only: “should there be more or less immigration?”
It is more: “how to bring in legally the workers the economy needs, while fighting illegal networks and improving integration?”
Foreigners represent 9.4% of the population
As of January 1, 2026, Italy had about 5.56 million foreign residents, or 9.4% of the total population. Their number rose by 188,000 in one year, a 3.5% increase.
This figure shows two things.
First, immigration has become a structural element of Italian society. It is no longer a marginal or temporary phenomenon. It contributes to demography, work, consumption, schooling and the territories.
Second, it does not by itself solve all problems. A younger population arriving from abroad can slow aging, but it does not replace a family policy, a housing policy, an employment policy and an integration policy.
Immigration can compensate. It cannot fix everything.
Tunisians in Italy: an ancient and useful community
In this landscape, Tunisians hold a special place.
According to the report La comunità Tunisina in Italia — Rapporto Annuale 2025, published by the Direzione Generale dell’immigrazione e delle politiche di integrazione of the Italian Ministry of Labour and Social Policies, 112,486 Tunisian citizens were regularly present in Italy as of December 31, 2024. This is an increase of 12.8% in one year.
Tunisians account for about 3% of regularly present non-European nationals and rank 10th among the main non-community groups in Italy.
This presence is ancient, Mediterranean and strongly territorialized. The Tunisian community is particularly established in Sicily, which concentrates about 22% of Tunisian presences, ahead of Emilia-Romagna and Lombardy. More broadly, 52% of Tunisians live in northern Italy, about 31% in the South and the islands, and nearly 17% in the Centre.
This is no accident. Geographic proximity, historical links, fishing, agriculture, family exchanges and long-standing migratory networks have made Italy one of the main destinations for Tunisians in Europe.
A younger community than Italy
One of the most important figures concerns age.
The average age of Tunisians in Italy is 35.9 years, compared with about 46.8 years for the overall Italian population according to ISTAT. Minors account for 20.8% of the Tunisian community, i.e., 23,405 people.
This difference is crucial. In a country that is aging, younger foreign communities contribute to demographic renewal, to schools, to territories and, potentially, to the labor market.
Thus Tunisian presence is not only a migratory issue. It is also a demographic reality.
Agriculture, fishing, industry, hospitality: key sectors
Tunisians are present in several essential sectors of the Italian economy.
The Italian report indicates that 28.2% of Tunisian workers are employed in agriculture, hunting and fishing. Next come industry with 19.5%, transportation and business services with 13.7%, hospitality and catering with 11%, then construction with 10.1%.
These figures are important because they correspond precisely to sectors where Italy experiences recurring labor needs.
In fields, in ports, on construction sites, in restaurants, in warehouses or in factories, Tunisian workers participate in an Italian economy that lacks arms.
That is why it would be reductive to talk about Tunisians only in migratory or security terms. Their presence is also productive, territorial and economic.
Some Tunisian entrepreneurs also present
The Tunisian contribution is not limited to salaried work.
The Italian report lists 12,588 individual enterprises led by Tunisians, i.e., 3.2% of the total non-community individual enterprises. About half of these Tunisian enterprises are active in construction, ahead of trade and transportation.
This figure matters to change the perception. Tunisians in Italy are not only job seekers. Some also create their own activity, hire, pay taxes, participate in local economies and settle permanently in the territories.
Thus Tunisian presence in Italy is also entrepreneurial.
Schools, universities, families: a lasting settlement
The Tunisian presence in Italy is also familial and educational.
In 2023-2024, 24,981 Tunisian students were enrolled in Italian schools, up 8.6% year on year. At university, the number of Tunisian students rose by 46%, to 2,955 students.
These figures tell a story of transformation. Tunisian migration to Italy is no longer merely male, temporary labor migration. It is also a family, educational and generational migration.
Another indicator goes in the same direction: mixed marriages between Italians and Tunisians. In 2023, there were 495, up 19.6% year on year. This figure shows that integration is not only about work or administrative statistics, but also about social, family and everyday life.
Tunisian children enrolled in Italian schools grow up in two worlds: Tunisian family culture and Italian society. They may become tomorrow bridges between the two countries.
Limits to face
Economic integration of the Tunisian community remains incomplete. The employment rate of Tunisians in Italy is 43.4%, below that of the overall non-European population. The unemployment rate reaches 19.2%, and the participation of Tunisian women in the labor market remains low, with a female employment rate of around 21%.
This means that the potential of the Tunisian community is still underutilized. Training, recognition of skills, language learning, access to female employment, entrepreneurial support: these levers can improve integration and strengthen Tunisians’ contribution to the Italian economy.
Italy needs labor. But for this immigration to be successful, it must be better organized, better protected and better integrated.
Transfers to Tunisia: an economic bridge in both directions
Tunisians in Italy also contribute to the Tunisian economy.
Money transfers sent from Italy to Tunisia reached about 151.9 million euros in 2024, up 9.6% year on year.
These remittances support families, fund daily expenses, studies, healthcare, and sometimes real estate or entrepreneurial projects. They show that the Tunisian diaspora acts as an economic bridge between the two shores of the Mediterranean.
The contribution is therefore double: Tunisians work, start businesses or study in Italy, while continuing to support part of the family economy in Tunisia.
What Italy can gain from a more open strategy
The real challenge for Italy is not to oppose control and immigration. It is to align them.
A country has the right to combat irregular entries, smuggling networks, fraudulent visa applications and the exploitation of workers. Fraudulent requests by non-European workers have already been canceled in investigations into criminal networks, which reminds us that legal immigration must also be protected against abuse.
But this control must go hand in hand with credible, fast and transparent legal channels. If companies need workers in agriculture, construction, elder care services, industry or tourism, then legal immigration must be organized efficiently.
The risk, otherwise, is twofold: leaving economic needs unmet and pushing would-be migrants toward irregular circuits.
What Tunisia can also gain from this
For Tunisia, these figures should also prompt reflection.
Tunisia’s presence in Italy is not merely a migratory fact. It can become a strategic axis: professional training, mobility agreements, recognition of diplomas, learning Italian, social protection for workers, support for students, and backing for diasporic entrepreneurship.
Tunisia has an interest in defending its citizens abroad, but also in better organizing legal mobility pathways. A prepared, qualified and properly supervised migration benefits the host country, the country of origin and the migrant themselves.
Italy, for its part, needs young and available labor. Tunisia has a youthful population, geographically close, culturally connected to the Mediterranean and already present on Italian soil.
There is therefore room for smarter cooperation.
But also a vigilance issue for Tunisia
The growing presence of young Tunisians in Italy raises a question back home.
Tunisia is also experiencing a gradual aging of its population and loses some of its young graduates — doctors, engineers, researchers, computer scientists — to Europe, North America and the Gulf. This mobility enriches diasporas but also deprives Tunisia of skills it needs for its own development.
Cooperation with Italy must thus be built in both directions: organizing supervised mobility pathways, shared training, returns, transfer of skills and joint economic projects, rather than a simple exodus to the North.
The question is not to prevent Tunisians from leaving. It is to ensure that their mobility creates value on both shores.
Thus, ISTAT data do not say that Italy must renounce controlling its borders. They say that an aging country, with only 355,000 births for 652,000 deaths, cannot sustainably do without workers, families and students coming from elsewhere.
The Meloni government is not only confronted with a security issue. It is confronted with a demographic equation: how to control irregular immigration while organizing the legal immigration that the Italian economy needs?
In this equation, Tunisians hold an important place. With more than 112,000 regular residents, a young community, nearly 25,000 students, nearly 3,000 university students, more than 12,000 individual enterprises, nearly 500 mixed marriages and more than 151 million euros sent to Tunisia in 2024, their presence is at once human, economic, familial and Mediterranean.
The real debate is therefore not to decide whether Italy should “open” or “close” its doors. It is about how to build a legal, useful, dignified, controlled and better-integrated immigration.
For Italy, it is a demographic necessity.
For Tunisia, it is a strategic challenge.
For Tunisians in Italy, it is a daily reality.
