According to a new Fitch Ratings report, the Brent crude oil price could average $120 per barrel in 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed for six months.
According to Fitch, if the closure lasted only three months, the average price would be about $100 per barrel. This represents a significant difference from Fitch Ratings’ baseline scenario, which projects an average price of $70 per barrel for 2026.
In the case of a three-month closure, Fitch Ratings projects an average Brent price of $100 per barrel in 2026, with a peak at $130 per barrel during the closure period, before falling to around $90 per barrel by the end of the year.
By contrast, for a six-month closure, the average Brent price could reach, according to Ftich Rating, $120 per barrel in 2026, with a peak between $130 and $170 per barrel during the closure, before descending to $90 per barrel by the end of the year.
In its baseline scenario, Fitch Ratings projects an average price of $70 per barrel for Brent in 2026, with a temporary rise to $100 per barrel on average for March, followed by an average price of $90 per barrel in the second quarter, before a drop to around $60 per barrel by the end of the year. Before the war, the average forecast for 2026 was $63 per barrel, suggesting an oversupplied market.
Prolonged closures of the Strait of Hormuz would trigger significant oil price volatility, with spikes potentially reaching $170 per barrel depending on the duration of the closure.
