Tunisia has entered a new climatic era whose effects are no longer a matter of projection but of statistical reality. Over the last decade, meteorological indicators reflect a troubling shift.
The year 2024 stands as a turning point, with an average annual temperature of 21.5 °C, i.e., 1.6 °C above historical norms. At the same time, precipitation records show marked deficits across most regions, confirming a structural trend toward drying.
Projections to 2080 reinforce this trajectory. According to climate models, temperature increases could reach between 1.9 °C and 5.3 °C, accompanied by a significant decrease in precipitation. This dual thermal and hydric constraint constitutes a systemic shock for an economy already weakened by the scarcity of natural resources.
A pressure on water resources
The effects of this disruption manifest themselves tangibly on hydraulic infrastructure. The volumes collected in the dams of the North, which constitute a pillar of the national supply, fell from 615 million cubic meters in 2023 to 506 million in 2024. This contraction illustrates a broader trend observed since the mid-2010s, marked by a succession of drought years and a decrease of about 30% in inflows.
The filling rates of the dams reflect this progressive degradation. From 64% in 2019, they fell to 44% in 2020, then to 33% in 2021, before stabilizing around one-third of capacity. By the summer of 2023, available stocks do not exceed 0.7 km³, versus more than one cubic kilometer on the average of the previous decade. This evolution drastically reduces the government’s margins for maneuver in irrigation and supply of drinking water.
A security below the critical threshold
Tunisia is already below the absolute scarcity threshold set at 500 m³ of renewable water per inhabitant per year, a threshold breached since 1995. In this context, the pressure exerted by the agricultural sector is decisive. Between 1995 and 2022, agriculture consumes on average 60% of mobilized water resources, compared with only 3.47% for industry.
