E-commerce enters 2026 with a very clear paradox: it remains one of the main drivers of the transformation of global trade, but it must now move forward in a more complex, more competitive and more political environment. According to the U.S. International Trade Administration, global B2C e-commerce revenue is expected to reach $5.5 trillion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 14.4%. The trajectory remains powerful, which confirms that in 2026, online commerce is no longer a trend, but a central infrastructure of the world economy.
This growth, however, occurs within a more fragile international context. The World Trade Organization raised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth to 2.4% in 2025, but lowered the figure for 2026 to only 0.5%. At the same time, growth in world exports of commercial services is expected at 4.4% in 2026. In short, trade continues, but more slowly for physical goods than for services, which mechanically favors digital activities, platforms, payments, and the best-organized e-commerce models.
A Global Market That Continues to Expand
One of the early engines of e-commerce in 2026 remains the widening connected base. The International Telecommunication Union estimates that in 2025, 6 billion people, or 74% of the world population, used the Internet, versus 5.8 billion in 2024. This represents more than 240 million new internet users in a year. But this movement is also accompanied by a persistent digital divide, since 2.2 billion people remain offline. In other words, the potential of e-commerce keeps growing, but very unevenly across regions.
This asymmetry matters a lot for 2026. In mature markets, the challenge is no longer simply to convert new internet users, but to improve purchase frequency, customer lifetime value and profitability. In catching-up markets, the growth potential remains considerable, but still depends on infrastructure, logistics, payments and the quality of connectivity.
Internationalization Becomes a Leading Growth Driver
The second major movement of 2026 is the internationalization of online commerce. UNCTAD notes that cross-border flows between developing countries climbed from about $0.5 trillion in 1995 to $6.8 trillion in 2025. The organization also notes that 57% of developing countries’ exports are now directed toward other developing economies, compared with 38% in 1995. This shows that commercial globalization does not disappear: it reconfigures itself.
In e-commerce, this reconfiguration favors players capable of selling beyond their domestic market. This is what Fevad’s 2026 data show: two-thirds of French e-merchants and three-quarters of European players already report operating abroad. Among them, 77% anticipate an increase in the share of their revenue earned outside their home market in the next two years. In 2026, export is therefore no longer a secondary option. It becomes a central axis of development.
AI Takes Center Stage in the Shopping Journey
The other major trend of 2026 is the concrete installation of artificial intelligence in the e-commerce experience. Adobe observed that during the 2025 holiday season, traffic to retail sites coming from generative AI tools surged by 693% year over year. Adobe also notes that visitors coming from these tools displayed higher engagement, and in some cases markedly higher commercial performance than traditional visits. This means that by 2026, AI is no longer merely a topic of innovation: it is starting to change how users discover products, compare offers, and move forward in their purchase decisions.
On the corporate side, adoption is accelerating even faster. According to Fevad, 94% of French companies surveyed report using at least one generative AI solution. AI is seen as the most promising innovation over a three-year horizon, notably in customer relations, marketing, logistics and security. Even more, 87% of executives say they already observe organizational changes related to its introduction. In 2026, AI thus becomes a production, sales and governance tool, not just a communications topic.
Technology and Cybersecurity Move to the Top of Priorities
This shift also explains the budgeting trade-offs observed this year. Still according to Fevad, 58% of French e-merchants plan to increase their budgets in IT and cybersecurity in 2026. Marketing and advertising come just behind, at 48%. These priorities say a lot about the new state of the sector: companies want to keep selling, of course, but they now know they must first secure their systems, stabilize their operations and strengthen their technical competitiveness.
This shift toward digital fundamentals is also reflected in OECD work. Between 2013 and 2023, the share of retail companies receiving online orders rose from 23% to 43%. At the same time, 67% have a website and 66% use social networks. The OECD also notes that adopting more advanced digital tools is generally associated with higher productivity. This confirms that in 2026, e-commerce is no longer just a sales channel: it is a complete operating model that requires ongoing investments.
The Consumer Remains Highly Price-Sensitive
One of the major realities of 2026 is also the sharp return of the price question. Fevad indicates that 93% of surveyed leaders note a strengthening of the appeal of promotions and low prices. 95% believe that consumer price benchmarks have changed, and 80% observe an increase in impulsive purchases. The 2026 customer remains connected, fast and digitized, but is also more opportunistic, more of a comparer and often less loyal.
This price pressure is also reflected in the French market figures. In 2025, e-commerce in France reached €196.4 billion, up 7% year on year, with 3.2 billion transactions carried out online, or +10%. By contrast, the average basket fell to €62, down 3%. The signal is clear: the sector continues to grow, but this growth is driven more by purchase frequency than by an increase in per-item spending.
An Optimistic Sector, but Much More Cautious
E-commerce players enter 2026 with confidence, but not euphoria. In France, 67% of e-merchants expect their revenue to rise this year, compared with only 8% who anticipate a drop. 56% foresee an improvement in their net margin. But, at the same time, 98% believe that political instability is impacting consumption, and 43% anticipate it deteriorating in the next twelve months. In other words, the sector still believes in its ability to progress, while recognizing that demand can become more nervous and more irregular.
This prudence is also justified by the rise of more aggressive global competition. According to Fevad, 70% of French e-merchants exposed to competition from Asian platforms say their activity is directly affected, and nearly a third report having had to adapt their commercial strategy. In 2026, competition comes not only from local or traditional players, but from global ecosystems capable of cutting prices, accelerating logistics and industrializing visibility.
What 2026 Really Changes
The year 2026 does not mark a slowdown of e-commerce. It marks its entry into a more mature phase. The market remains buoyant, digital usages continue to expand, AI takes hold, international expansion progresses and transaction volumes stay high. But this new stage demands a different discipline: better margin management, better data utilization, better protection of systems, better mobile optimization, better thinking about export and better response to a consumer who compares everything, instantly.
The true face of e-commerce in 2026 is here. It is no longer simply a digital business. It is a technology-driven, international, ultra-competitive commerce, and far more demanding in its execution. Those who win will not necessarily be the biggest, but the fastest, the most reliable and the best organized.
By Walid Kooli
University lecturer, expert adviser in e-commerce, strategies and digital transformation of companies.
