The Tunisian agricultural question has entered a new historical phase. Long considered a production sector among others, agriculture today becomes a matter of economic security, social stability, and even strategic sovereignty.
Behind tensions over food prices, occasional shortages, or rising agricultural imports, there is in reality a much deeper crisis: that of a production model built for a climate that no longer exists.
The shift is now visible in the numbers. Tunisia currently has barely 400 m³ of renewable water per inhabitant per year, compared with an international water security threshold set at 1,700 m³. The country thus ranks among the territories most exposed to chronic water stress in the Mediterranean basin.
Moreover, national renewable water resources remain limited to about 4.6 billion m³ per year, while needs are increasing under the combined effects of population growth, urbanization and climate warming.
This pressure is mainly focused on the agricultural sector, which alone accounts for nearly 77% of the country’s total water withdrawals while the Tunisian hydraulic system today shows signs of structural strain. In 2025, reservoir filling rates fluctuated between 28% and 38% depending on the time of year, confirming the progressive establishment of a lasting water vulnerability.
The productive model has reached its limits
For several decades, Tunisian agriculture developed according to a logic of classical intensification: more water, more chemical inputs, and a gradual expansion of the cultivated areas. This model allowed improving agricultural yields and supporting national dietary needs.
