OPEC has again lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth this year to 780,000 barrels per day.
It is the third consecutive downward revision of OPEC’s forecasts, with ongoing geopolitical developments in the Middle East weighing on consumption outlooks. While OPEC+’s production rose in June to an average of more than 36 million barrels per day thanks to the rebound in activity in the Strait of Hormuz, recent military developments between the United States and Iran have heightened concerns about possible supply disruptions.
Nevertheless, OPEC projects that if tensions ease in the second half of the year, the market will stabilize and it has raised its forecast for oil demand growth for next year to 1.94 million barrels per day.
According to OPEC, the global economy is expected to remain broadly resilient to external environmental fluctuations in the first half of 2026. The organization estimates that if geopolitical tensions continue to ease and energy markets and international supply chains gradually stabilize, global economic growth could improve in the second half.
The conflict between Iran and the United States has virtually paralyzed the Strait of Hormuz – the world’s most important sea lane for oil transport – for months, significantly reducing Middle East oil supplies. After a temporary ceasefire between the two countries, oil production and transport began to rebound. However, recent air strikes have renewed concerns about the risk of renewed supply disruptions.
According to independent-source data used by OPEC to monitor production, OPEC+’s crude oil production averaged 36.28 million barrels per day in June, an increase of about 3 million barrels per day from the previous month, as many Gulf producers began restoring production cuts implemented during the conflict.
It is noted that the May production figures still include the United Arab Emirates (UAE), although the country officially left OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1.
